Barclays analyst Dan Levy published a cautious note on Rivian on Tuesday, ahead of the electric vehicle maker’s first-quarter earnings release scheduled for later today, May 6.
Levy said Barclays “leans negative” on the stock, citing ongoing tariff uncertainty and rising production costs. The bank expects the RJ Scaringe-led company to report a negative gross profit for the quarter and to lower its full-year guidance.
Barclays forecasts an adjusted EBITDA loss of $518 million for the quarter, slightly better than the Wall Street consensus of a $540 million loss.
Rivian delivered 8,600 vehicles in the first quarter, surpassing its 8,000-unit target. However, Barclays expects full-year deliveries to total 42,300 vehicles—below Rivian’s most recent guidance of 46,000 to 51,000 units.
Gross profit is projected to come in at a $31 million loss, down from a $170 million loss in the fourth quarter of 2024.
“We expect Rivian to return to negative gross margins following the positive fourth-quarter result, driven by lower regulatory credits”, the analyst estimated, adding that “vehicle COGS [direct costs of production] will continue to be the core focus.”
Barclays maintained its Equal Weight rating on the company’s stock, with a $14 price target. Based on Monday’s closing price of $13.55, Barclays’ price target implies an upside potencial of of 3.3%.
Tariffs on Chinese Imports
Levy said that investors are focusing on how tariffs may impact production costs, as global trade tensions rose in the past month. The U.S. has introduced an additional 145% duty on Chinese imports, potentially bringing the total rates to 245%, while China is imposing a 125% tariff on goods from the U.S.
Despite potential tariff reductions between the two largest economies in the world, the U.S. is not backing down on its 25% tax on all imported vehicles and auto parts.
Rivian‘s production is domestic, at its Illinois plant, however the analyst highlighted that the brand sources Chinese battery components.
“The tariff on LFP batteries could drive near-term earnings pressure,” he stated. Barclays anticipates that the impact of tariffs will materialize later in the year, and batteries could be reclassified into higher tariff categories — a shift that could raise vehicle costs by as much as $13,000 per unit.
The analyst pointed to potential longer-term tariff risk for the upcoming R2 model. Although it will use U.S. sourced-LG batteries, there will be “the added costs alongside the expected removal of the EV tax credit.”
“Given recent tariff uncertainty, we believe investors will be more focused on forward cost commentary rather than first-quarter cost,” Levy stated.
Volkswagen JV
The analyst also pointed out Rivian‘s joint venture with Volkswagen, although it lacks visibility. The Irving-based company is expected to update shareholders on the progress of the partnership on Tuesday’s earnings call.
‘Rivian and Volkswagen Group Technologies’ was revealed last July and launched in November. Its total deal size is up to $5.8 billion. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard also stated that the firm will “be looking for further detail on Rivian’s progress with its Volkswagen Joint Venture.”
Barclays’ 2025 EBITDA forecast stands at -$1.975 billion, also below the guided range.
