Japan’s Nomura raised on Wednesday its price target on Nio by 30.3% while maintaining a Buy rating — less than two months after the bank reported its most bullish stance on the Chinese EV maker since 2023.
Analyst Frank Fan cited an “optimistic outlook for new vehicle models” and further expected improvements in Nio‘s business and financial conditions as grounds for the 30% target raise.
Nomura’s analyst Martin Heung — Fan’s predecessor — initiated coverage with a Buy and $80.30 target in January 2021, the same month that Nio‘s US-listed shares hit their all time high at $66.99.
Heung maintained a $51.50 target through March 2022 even as the stock had already fallen 70% from its $66.99 peak.
New Price Target
On Wednesday, Nomura’s analyst Fan made slight upward revisions to his delivery forecasts, now projecting a 26% compound annual growth rate in deliveries from 2025 to 2028, up from 25% in his March note.
The move follows Nomura’s March 11 upgrade to Buy from Neutral — the bank’s first bullish rating on the stock since June 2023.
At the time, Fan trimmed the target at $6.60, down from a prior $8.40 Neutral target, citing a more challenging competitive environment that led to sales-forecast cuts for 2026 and 2027.
Six weeks later, Fan has reversed the March target cut and lifted the price target to $8.60 from $6.60.
The new target is driven by three catalysts Fan flagged as under-appreciated at the time of the March upgrade: the third-generation ES8’s continued sales momentum, the ES9 pre-launch reception, and the upcoming Onvo L80 and third large SUV under the main Nio brand.
The Product Catalyst
Nio delivered 83,465 vehicles in the first quarter of 2026 — a 98.3% year-over-year increase that exceeded the upper end of the company’s own 80,000-to-83,000 guidance range.
March alone accounted for 35,486 units (+136.0% year-over-year, +70.6% month-over-month).
The delivery beat was driven by the third-generation ES8, which reached its 80,000th delivery 181 days after launch and ranked number one in China’s large SUV segment for three consecutive months.
The 100,000th will be delivered later this week
Nio has since held pre-launch events for three additional catalysts:
The ES9 flagship SUV was unveiled on April 9 with sales opening in May and deliveries beginning on the first day of June.
Pre-launch pricing was set at 528,000 yuan ($77,200) for the Executive Luxury Edition, 588,000 yuan for the Executive Signature, and 698,000 yuan for the Horizon Special Edition.
Bank of China analyst Jack Yeung projected monthly ES9 deliveries of 3,000 to 4,000 units once the model reaches steady state, driving combined ES8 and ES9 sales above 10,000 units monthly.
The Onvo L80 — a five-seat variant of the L90 — is scheduled to be unveiled ilater this week, expanding the family-oriented sub-brand’s lineup alongside the refreshed 2026 L90 that launched earlier this week.
A five-seat ES8 variant is scheduled for early July, replacing the ES7 nameplate that was discontinued in China last year after being Nio’s model with the lowest demand.
What’s Next
The $8.60 target implies meaningful upside from Nio‘s current trading level.
The stock closed at $6.43 on Tuesday and was trading 1.7% higher at $6.54 as of press time.
Q1 2026 earnings are expected in late May or early June, with the results expected to show sequential margin expansion as the ES8 continues to represent a vast majority of the deliveries.
Vehicle gross margin rose to 18.1% in Q4 2025, with Nio CFO guidance indicating roughly flat margins in Q1 2026 as the three row SUV mix benefits offset industry cost pressures.
Management has guided for 40% to 50% delivery growth in 2026 — implying 456,000 to 489,000 vehicles for the year, against Nomura’s revised 26% CAGR through 2028.
