Bernstein analyst Daniel Roeska on Wednesday downgraded Ford‘s price target to $7.00, a 25.5% cut from $9.40. The stock’s rating was also cut from Market Perform to Underperform.
“It is time to confront some hard truths, once more: vehicle tariffs have commenced, and parts tariffs are likely to follow within a month”, Roeska stated in a new research note published Wednesday.
Detroit automakers are the most affected by Trump’s measures. GM currently builds 52% of its vehicles sold in the US at domestic facilities, while 30% come from Canada and Mexico and 18% from other regions. Ford’s US production stands at 77%, with 21% sourced from Canada and Mexico and 2% from other regions.
The analyst noted that the firm “expects Ford’s shares to remain under pressure,” leading to the rating’s downgrade.
The two countries’ back-and-forth exchange on the tariffs has driven auto stocks to drop. At the time of writing, Ford‘s stock is trading 0.90% higher at $8.61. Based on Tuesday’s closing price of $8.69, the new price target implies a downside of 19.4%.
Bernstein finds “significant downside not priced by the market yet”, saying that the tariff impact lowers Ford’s free cash flow “by more than 35%” and decreases estimates on adjusted earnings for this year by 41.2% and for 2026 by 36.4%.
Earlier this week, Roeska had also lowered Bernstein’s price target on General Motors over the tariffs impact. The analyst stated in late March that the EV makers Rivian and Polestar could face “added strain due to import-heavy supply chains and limited pricing power.”
A few weeks ago, JPMorgan’s analyst Ryan Brinkman stated that the tariffs could have a “$6 billion cost to Ford (amounting to ~75% of global profits)” and a “$14 billion cost to General Motors (amounting to essentially all of its global profits)”.
On Ford, the analyst estimated “that the average selling price of vehicles imports from Canada and Mexico … transacts for materially less than company average (as opposed to General Motors for which we estimate import ASPs … are similar to the company average).”
Ford’s CEO Backs Elon Musk
On Tuesday, Ford‘s CEO Jim Farley wrote on X inviting anyone to visit the brand’s Michigan plant one day after Trump’s top trade adviser Peter Navarro dismissed Tesla’s supply chain, calling Elon Musk an “assembler” rather than a “manufacturer”.
“We should never lose sight of the breadth and value of American innovation. It’s the lifeblood of our economy and extends beyond assembly,” Farley wrote on X.
“I invite anyone to Michigan to see for themselves how the best selling F-150 goes all the way from sketch pad to engineering lab to test track to rolling off the assembly line thanks to the skill of our hourly workers — all within one square mile,” he added on Tuesday.
China Strikes Back with 84% Tariffs
China’s Finance Ministry announced earlier this Wednesday that it is hiking the tariffs on U.S. imports by adding an additional tax of 50% on top of the previously announced 34%, starting on April 10.
This raises the tariffs to 84%, while the U.S. has applied, as of yesterday, a 104% rate on China, adding 50% on top of the 54% duties announced last week.
