Written by Cláudio Afonso | LinkedIn | X
With the help from new models — fully electric and extended range electric vehicles (EREV) — the electric vehicle maker XPeng is expected to deliver 207,000 units this year and nearly the double (405,000) by 2026, according to Citi analyst Jeff Chung.
In a new research note, the analyst increased the firm’s delivery estimates for the Guangzhou EV manufacturer by 7 to 8 percent.
XPeng will launch its new flagship hatchback sedan in the last quarter of the year, following the August debut of its cheapest model to date, the Mona M03.
Citi expects now the brand led by Xiaopeng He to deliver 207,000 units this year, 322,000 units in 2025 405,000 in 2026.
“To factor in strong MONA M03 order intake, upcoming launch of P7+ in 4Q24E, potential EREV model pipeline in 2025E and sequential EV beta improvements into 2025E, we lift our 2024-26E sales forecast by 7-8 percent to 207/322/405k units, with 2024-26E net loss forecast lowered by 4-11% to Rmb6.1/4.8/3.4bn,” Chung wrote.
The higher sales forecast led the firm to raise its price target on the stock to $10.30 from $8.90 while keeping a Neutral rating.
“By applying 1.6x (from 1.5x) 2024E P/S (1-year average), we lift our TP [target price] from US$8.90/HK$34.60 to US$10.30/HK$40.00,” he wrote.
Despite the price target raise, the analyst sees the company’s stock trading “at a fair level”.
“Considering MONA’s volume overshoots could lead to ASP [average selling price]/margin dilution as well as the tough BEV demand/supply environment, we see the valuation of the company’s stock as already at a fair level and risk/reward balanced. Maintain Neutral,” Chung wrote.
Written by Cláudio Afonso | LinkedIn | X
