Twenty-four hours before Tesla reports its third quarter production and delivery figures, William Blair has updated its forecast, estimating the EV maker to have delivered 480,000 units between July and September.
The estimates were raised from 443,000, and stand now above Wall Street’s consensus of 443,000 deliveries.
Benchmark said earlier this week it expects 442,000 units, “with some high-side calls in the mid-460,000s.”
Deutsche Bank said last week that it estimates the company to report 461,000 vehicles, “supported by the launch of Model Y L in China and US pre-buy effect ahead of EV incentives going away.”
In a new note published on Wednesday — and obtained by PriceTarget — analyst Jed Dorsheimer said that the firm “remains cautious” ahead of the final quarter of 2025.
According to him, despite the stock being up now, “[profit] margins from a hangover on auto deliveries and lower regulatory credit revenue” may put pressure on it in the final quarter of 2025.
“As expected, the end of the EV tax credit has caused a pull-forward in demand, but it has been stronger than we originally estimated,” Dorsheimer noted.
The analyst wrote that demand for the new Model Y “has been a bright spot” in both the United States and in China, which has helped “offset the continued weakness in Europe.”
The company has recently introduced new trims of its best-selling SUV, which was refreshed earlier this year.
In China, Tesla introduced a three-row version of the Model Y, adding competition to the six-seat segment.
Meanwhile, it also launched a Performance version of the Model Y in both Europe and the US, with the US release happening just hours before the EV tax credit expired on Tuesday.
Dorsheimer wrote that he believes “the buy-side is ahead of the sell-side here and closer to our estimate,” with the firm “finding it increasingly difficult to maintain a Market Perform rating” on the stock.
Tesla shares extended their recent rally on Wednesday, sending the company’s market cap to above $1.5 trillion for the first time since the last days of 2024.
The stock has surged more than 37% in the past month.
As of press time, the company is trading nearly 3% higher at $457, just 7% away from its all-time high of $488.54, also reached late last year.
