Tesla‘s CEO Elon Musk said on Wednesday that it’s “probably true” that the upcoming Cybercab model could cost less than 20 cents per mile by 2030.
The numbers come from ARK Invest’s ‘Big Ideas 2026’ report, which estimates $0.20-per-mile based on 2030 production at scale.
Tesla aims to make one Cybercab every 10 seconds, eventually reaching a rate of one every five seconds, through the ‘Unboxed’ manufacturing process.
Production for the company’s first autonomous vehicle is scheduled for April.
ARK Invest Report
Analysts Tasha Keeney and Daniel Maguire noted that robotaxis are already taking market share from traditional ride-hailing companies.
The research specifically points to Waymo, as Tesla has not yet launched a service without safety drivers — despite currently testing fully driverless vehicles.
With Waymo’s launch for select users in late 2023, followed by a public rollout in mid-2024, its share of rides in San Francisco rose to nearly 25% by August 2025.
Lyft’s share declined from over 30% to around 25% during the same period.
Uber, the most established ride-hailing service, lost roughly 15–20% of its market share, bringing it just above 50% — it still accounts for the majority of rides.
In cities like Austin, Atlanta and Phoenix, Waymo has partnered with Uber to deploy its robotaxis there.
Waymo leads its robotaxi competitors with nearly 350,000 fully autonomous miles driven.
However, the Google-backed company’s cumulative mileage pales in comparison to Tesla, which has surpassed 7 billion self-driving miles thanks to its Full-Self Driving (FSD) software — available across all its vehicles, including personal ones.
When considering the incremental cost per mile — including both depreciation, insurance, maintenance and taxes — Waymo vehicles are also more expensive than Tesla‘s.
Cost Per Mile
Tesla‘s ride-hailing service was launched in late June, in Austin, with a fleet of Model Ys modified with the Robotaxi FSD.
These vehicles have a cost per mile just above $0.60, which is 35% lower than the current Waymo car (above $1.00).
ARK Invest estimates that a Waymo vehicle will cost about 40 cents per mile in 2030, while the Tesla Cybercab will allow customers to pay half of that.
In 2025, a human-driven ride-hail trip in the U.S. cost $2.80 per mile — $2.00 more than driving a personal car.
By comparison, global robotaxis averaged just $0.25 per mile, largely due to launches in China, where even human-driven ride-hail rides cost only $0.50 per mile.
ARK Invest on Tesla
ARK Invest is known for its bullish outlook on Tesla.
A year and a half ago, the firm set a 2029 price target of $2,600 per share, with a bear case of $2,000 and a bull case of $3,100.
The target indicates that Tesla’s market value could exceed $8 trillion, surpassing the $7.5 trillion 2035 goal linked to the CEO’s latest compensation package.
The pay plan also requires reaching milestones such as deploying 1 million Robotaxis, which depends on the progress of Cybercab production.
ARK Invest’s CEO and Chief Investment Officer Cathie Wood reaffirmed earlier this week on CNBC that Tesla “is not an auto company,” reflecting on the recent investor focus shift towards autonomy projects.
She noted that “it’s been interesting to me to see upgrades, even by some auto analysts, now that they’re beginning to understand that this is not an auto company.”
Saying that ARK has been “keeping an eye on how quickly Tesla’s [robotaxi] footprint is expanding here,” Wood thinks “it’s expanding a lot faster […] than many people expected.”
“And it’s interesting to watch Waymo as well,” the investor added, suggesting that “competition is a good thing.”
Wood estimates that the Robotaxi business could drive “90% of Tesla’s enterprise value and earnings” in 2029.
Autonomous Projects
Most Wall Street analysts believe Tesla’s autonomous projects are driving the stock, as vehicle deliveries decline due to rising competition in the EV segment and policy changes, both in the US and across the globe.
Elon Musk said last week that it is “probably true” that Tesla‘s Optimus robot will make people forget that the company previously manufactured electric vehicles.
The company is expected to start mass production of the third-gen Optimus robot in 2027.
Replying to an X post by Tesla shareholder Sawyer Merritt earlier this week, Musk cautioned that Cybercab production targets come with “the important caveat that initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve.”
“For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow,” Musk said, however adding that it will “eventually end up being insanely fast.”
