Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg published Monday a new research note on Tesla, a few days before the Elon Musk-led company reports its quarterly production and delivery figures.
In a new note obtained by PriceTarget, the analyst reaffirmed the $475 price target on the stock, which implies an upside potential of 7.9% — based on Friday’s close at $440.40).
Benchmark estimates Tesla‘s deliveries between July 1 and September 30 stood at 442,000 vehicles, slighly below the FactSet consensus.
“We model 442,000 deliveries versus ~448,000 for FactSet consensus, with some high-side calls in the mid-460,000s,” Legg wrote.
Last week, Deutsche Bank, which has also updated its price target on Tesla by nearly $100, said it estimates the company to report 461,000 vehicles, “supported by the launch of Model Y L in China and US pre-buy effect ahead of EV incentives going away.”
Mickey Legg expects “a solid sequential uptick” compared to the second quarter’s 384,122 units, and “a measured setup into year-end given a choppy incentive/pricing backdrop.”
In the US, the $7,500 consumer credit on EV purchases and leasing contracts will end on September 30.
The deadline has prompted electric vehicle sales to jump over the past three months, ahead of the phase-out of the incentive.
The analyst still sees “risk of volatility if regional mix or ASPs [average selling prices] underwhelm.”
“We continue to anticipate policy-driven choppiness after 3Q as certain EV incentives/credits tighten or roll off in select markets,” he wrote, adding that they “potentially create 4Q demand air pockets and order-book lumpiness.”
However, Benchmark considers “this is transitory, not thesis-breaking,” while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock.
The analyst noted that shares are “up sharply into the print,” with their positioning raising the bar “for an upside surprise to translate into further near-term strength.”
In the past 30 days, Tesla‘s shares have jumped 32.9%, nearly recovering from the sharp drop the stock has experienced since it hit its all-time high in December 2024, at $488.54.
In late July, after Tesla reported its second earnings financial results, Legg had written that Tesla has been demonstrating “continued execution in its core strategic pillars of autonomy, AI, and energy,” despite the headwinds.
By then, Elon Musk had said that the company “probably could have a few rough quarters” ahead, due to the consumer credit expiring in the US.
Legg said that “investors should look beyond the short-term road bumps and focus on the breadth of upcoming opportunities with new, more affordable models scheduled for H2.”
On Monday, HSBC analyst Michael Tyndall also increased his price target — by $7 — to $127. The analyst, however, has maintained a bearish outlook on the stock, reiterating a Reduce rating.
