Written by Cláudio Afonso | LinkedIn | X
Wall Street analysts posted mixed reactions to Rivian fourth-quarter 2024 earnings report published on Thursday, with price targets revised both upwards and downwards as the EV maker posted improved gross profit but guided for lower than expected vehicle deliveries in 2025.
The company posted its first quarterly gross profit of $170 million, compared to a loss of $606 million a year earlier. Net loss narrowed to $743 million from $1.52 billion in Q4 2023.
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney maintained a Neutral rating with a $14 price target. Delaney noted that Rivian’s cost of goods sold (COGS) per vehicle improved significantly, falling by $31,000 year over year to approximately $100,000 per vehicle in Q4.
He highlighted the potential for the company’s software and services business, citing its electronic architecture and plans for advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) that could support hands-free driving by 2026.
However, Delaney cautioned that Rivian operates in a challenging EV market, with regulatory credit revenue expected to remain flat at $300 million in 2025. He also pointed to the long path ahead before the company achieves positive free cash flow (FCF).
Cantor Fitzgerald
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard downgraded Rivian to Neutral from Overweight, while increasing the price target to $15 from $13. Sheppard cited the company’s revised 2025 delivery forecast of 51,000 units, down from the previous estimate of 59,402, as a key driver for the downgrade.
Despite the downgrade, Sheppard raised his 2025 revenue forecast to $5.59 billion, up from a prior estimate of $5.12 billion, incorporating expected revenue from Rivian’s software and services segment. He also lowered his 2026 delivery projection to 76,500 from 110,000 units. Key risks outlined in his note include new tariffs, potential removal of EV tax credits, supply-chain disruptions, and slower-than-expected consumer adoption.
Benchmark
Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg reaffirmed a Buy rating with an $18 price target, emphasizing Rivian’s improving operational efficiencies and cost control.
He acknowledged the company’s conservative 2025 guidance of 46,000 to 51,000 vehicle deliveries—below consensus expectations—but maintained that Rivian remains on track for long-term profitability. The firm expects Rivian to achieve modest gross profit for the full year 2025 and sees the launch of the R2 in 2026 as a key growth driver.
Needham
Needham analyst Chris Pierce raised Rivian’s price target to $17 from $14, reiterating a Buy rating.
Pierce highlighted stronger-than-expected Q4 gross margins and owner enthusiasm for the brand. He pointed to the upcoming launch of the more affordable R2 vehicle and Rivian’s strengthened balance sheet following its Volkswagen joint venture as positives.
However, he acknowledged concerns around Rivian’s 2025 delivery guidance and the company’s difficulty in scaling annual production volumes. Needham’s valuation is based on a 15x multiple of projected FY2028 adjusted EBITDA, discounted back.
Mizuho
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh increased Rivian’s price target to $13 from $11 while maintaining a Neutral rating. He noted that Rivian’s 4Q performance was strong, with a 10% gross margin driven in part by regulatory credit tailwinds.
However, he flagged that Rivian’s 2025 delivery guidance of 48,500 units—down 6% year over year—fell short of the consensus expectation of approximately 55,000 units.
Rakesh also mentioned Rivian’s plan to expand its service footprint with 30 new service locations in 2025 and its decision to open RCV sales to all buyers. While maintaining a cautious outlook on near-term EV demand, he projected Rivian’s 2026 deliveries at 74,500 units, below the consensus forecast of 94,000 but above S&P Global Mobility’s estimate of 56,000 units.
Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan raised Rivian’s price target to $14 from $11 while maintaining an Equal Weight rating.
