Mizuho downgraded Rivian to Underperform and slashed its price target by nearly 30%, citing a weaker outlook for US electric-vehicle demand following the end of the federal $7,500 EV tax credit.
The Japanese bank’s new $10 target, down from $14, implies a potential downside of about 28% from Friday’s close of $13.83.
Analyst Vijay Rakesh wrote that Mizuho now expects Rivian to deliver 60,000 vehicles in 2026, about 8,000 fewer than its previous forecast and well below Wall Street’s consensus of 72,000.
Rivian shares fell 1.4% to $12.86 in premarket trading Monday.
“We lower our 2026E Rivian deliveries to 60k units from 68k previously (consensus 72k), now up ~40% y/y (still challenging) vs. consensus +69% y/y, as we see BEV demand soften,” Rakesh said in a note to clients.
The research note was first obtained by PriceTarget.
He added that North American electric vehicle light-vehicle production “is expected flat year-on-year, with General Motors recording a $1.6 billion September-quarter EV impairment charge, signaling broader EV weakness.”
The downgrade comes as the US EV industry faces fresh pressure after the Trump administration’s decision to scrap the $7,500 federal incentive, a key policy that has supported battery-car sales for years.
“Downgrading Rivian to Underperform on softer 2026 EV sales outlook as IRA credits end,” Rakesh said, adding that the loss of the Inflation Reduction Act subsidy represents “an added headwind.”
Mizuho estimates Rivian’s third-quarter deliveries rose 25% from the prior quarter to 13,000 units, but said the company’s high average selling prices — above $70,000 — could make it harder to sustain growth until its lower-priced R2 model launches in the first half of 2026.
“We are downgrading Rivian to Underperform, lowering estimates ~13% below consensus and PT to $10 from $14 as US BEV demand faces headwinds,” the analyst wrote.
Last week, Rivian’s founder and CEO RJ Scaringe revealed that the company has increased the planned annual production capacity for the R2 model at its Normal, Illinois, factory to as many as 175,000 vehicles, up from an earlier goal of 155,000.
CEO RJ Scaringe has said the plant is also expected to produce 85,000 R1S and R1T vehicles and 65,000 electric delivery vans.
