Barclays expects Rivian to deliver 48,000 electric vehicles in 2026, a figure that would still fall short of the automaker’s 2023 total despite the launch of its more affordable R2 SUV.
The projection, included in a research note published Tuesday, reflects the firm’s cautious outlook on the R2 production ramp.
The 48,000-unit forecast would represent a 13.6% increase from the 42,247 vehicles Rivian delivered in 2025, but remains below the 51,579 units delivered in 2024 and 50,122 in 2023.
“We expect EBITDA guide of ~-$2bn and deliveries of 48k, both below cons on lower R2 volume,” Levy wrote.
Rivian will release its fourth-quarter results after US markets close on Thursday, with a management conference call with Scaringe and the CFO Claire McDonough scheduled for 5 p.m. Eastern time.
R2 Launch
Barclays’ conservative forecast comes despite R2 being Rivian‘s most affordable model ever, with a base price of $45,000.
The company has repeatedly said deliveries will begin in “the first half of the year.”
A sales representative at Rivian‘s King of Prussia Mall showroom in Pennsylvania told a customer that deliveries would start in “mid-April,” as EV reported Monday.
However, Rivian has not confirmed that deliveries of the $45,000 base trim will begin this year.
Founder and CEO RJ Scaringe said in November that production will begin with a dual-motor configuration.
Pricing details, range specifications, and the online configurator are not yet available.
Media reviews are expected to go live later Tuesday, according to an embargo date that leaked Friday.
Negative Sentiment
Analyst Dan Levy reiterated an Equalweight rating and $14 price target on the stock ahead of Rivian‘s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report on Thursday.
Barclays noted that investor sentiment has turned negative heading into the earnings report, following a period of excitement in late 2025.
“Sentiment leaning negative into 4Q EPS, following period of excitement late-’25, negative fundamentals now more in focus,” the firm said.
Levy added that a technology licensing deal is not expected in the fourth quarter “but likely in the future.”
Based on Monday’s closing price of $14.69, Barclays’ price target implies a 4.7% downside.
Extended Selloff
Rivian shares recently snapped a 10-session losing streak that ran from January 22 to February 5, during which the stock fell from $16.32 to $13.73 — a 15.9% decline.
The broader selloff has erased roughly $5.5 billion in market value, with the stock falling in 15 of the past 20 trading sessions.
Shares closed at $14.69 on Monday, down 26.8% from the January 7 close of $20.06.
The retreat follows a sharp rally that saw shares nearly double between early November and mid-December, reaching a two-year high of $22.69.
The decline began shortly after Rivian reported full-year 2025 deliveries of 42,284 vehicles — down 18% from 2024 and below 2023 levels.
While the company met its guidance, the target had been lowered twice throughout the year.
Rivian delivered fewer vehicles than in 2023 despite expanded sales, charging, and service networks, and higher brand awareness.
Since reaching an all-time high of $179.47 shortly after its IPO, the stock has fallen 91.8%.
As of press time, Rivian shares were trading 0.6% higher at $14.78 in Tuesday’s pre-market session.
