NIO: next catalysts and why I am Bullish for the upcoming months (by C. Afonso)

Written by Cláudio Afonso |

NIO shares hit on Tuesday a new 52-week-low at $17.58 and closed 0.77% lower at $17.98. The stock had an impressive year of 2020 with the surging of the EV sector led by Tesla, whose stock skyrocketed 740% that year. During the first days of 2021, NIO’s share price was trading above $60, after the company unveiled the ET7 Model during NIO Day held in December 2020. By then, the company reached a Market Cap value above $100 Billion, an impressive number for the EV manufacturer that was delivering only around 17,000 vehicles per quarter (Q4 2020 official numbers), an annual pace rate of 68,000 units per year.


NIO January 2021 vs NIO march 2022

When its share price hit the All-Time-High at $66.99, NIO was not delivering overseas yet, with that goal being achieved later on the year with its opening of NIO Store in Oslo, Norway. By then, the company was presenting its fourth model with no date for the first deliveries, no European Expansion detailed and only 177 Battery Swap stations built in China. Here are some key differences from January 2021 to March 2022:

  • 17,353 vehicles delivered per Quarter VS 26,000 units expected for Q1 2022, an increase of 52%;
  • 177 VS 850 Battery Swap Stations in China;
  • Es8, EC6 and ES6 Models VS ET7, ET5, ES7 (not officially unveiled yet), ES8, ES6 and EC6;
  • Only selling in China VS selling in China, Norway and another 4 countries expected for later this year;

Next catalysts

  • Hong-Kong Listing on March 10th and Singapore Listing also being planned;
  • Nio job post for a General Manager in UK last week, pointing it to be the 6th Market overseas;
  • Heifei Factory completed later in early Q3 ramping the production capacity;
  • CEO William Li said he expects the 100% growth rate to maintain in 2022, meaning more than 180,000 units delivered;
  • NIO ES7 model, the new SUV model that will be launched in 2022 with its production starting before year end. NIO will start producing and delivering 3 new models in 2022;

Year-to-Date Performance

When compared to Tesla, the sector leader and the world’s biggest EV manufacturer, Nio shares are underperforming. As of March 9th, Tesla ($TSLA) is down 21.99% and Nio ($NIO) 43.24% lower YTD. Despite having another target audience as customers, it may worth to compare how the other Chinese stocks have been trading since January 1st. Xpeng Motors is down 48.38% YTD while Li Auto is currently trading 25% lower.


After Xpeng and Li’s listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, also NIO shares will now be traded on this Exchange.”The listing on the stock exchange may enhance our company’s profile in Hong Kong, facilitate investment by Hong Kong investors, enable our company to gain access to Hong Kong’s capital markets and benefit our company by exposing us to a wide range of private and institutional investors” — Nio stated.



Apart from the traditional slow month of the year in China (February), NIO has delivered more than 10,000 units per month in 4 of the 5 previous months showing a strong demand for its products. Relevant to mention that the company is still not delivering its 2 new models: NIO ET7 and NIO ET5 with 1,000km range. Recently, NIO’s CEO William Li said that the 100% growth rate on the deliveries should also happens this year, meaning that the company is set to deliver more than 180,000 units.


oil prices surging = ev SALES boost

The recent rising of fossil fuel prices (that tends to maintain during the next weeks/ months) have consumers start to look at electric vehicles as a realistic option for their future. As of Tuesday morning, the average price in the U.S. for a gallon of regular gasoline touched $4.17, the highest price ever. Back in 2008, when the EV adoption was on its early days, electric vehicle sales saw a bosst when oil nearly broke $150 a barrel.


Nio announced last week that it will report its fourth quarter and full year 2021 unaudited financial results on Thursday, March 24, 2022, after the close of the U.S. markets. The Company’s management will host an earnings conference call at 9:00 PM U.S. Eastern Time on March 24, 2022 (9:00 AM Beijing/Hong Kong Time on March 25, 2022). A live and archived webcast of the conference call will be available on the Company’s investor relations website at

Last week, the company announced that delivered 6,131 vehicles during February 2022, representing an increase of 9.9% year-over-year. February deliveries are often affected by the Chinese Spring Festival Hollidays where the factories usually close from January 31st to February 6th.

Written by Cláudio Afonso |