Citi said on Monday it is adding Nio shares to its 30-day positive catalyst watch list as it increases 2026 full year sales estimates by nearly 150,000 units.
In a new research note, Citi analyst Jeff Chung said the firm expects Nio “to launch new models much earlier than the consensus expected,” highlighting that they will feature a “lower BOM [bill of materials] cost and cost-saving synergies going forward.”
Chung reiterated a Buy rating on the stock and expects shares of the EV maker to double. Citi also reaffirmed the 8.10 price target which, based on Friday’s closing price of $4.03, implies an upside potential of 101%.
As of the time of writing, the stock is trading 2% higher at $4.11 during Monday’s pre-market trading session.
Citi cited a “recent orders recovery,” as reflected in the latest weekly registration data showing Nio’s best sales week of the year, as part of its reasoning for adding the stock to the “30-Day Positive Catalyst Watch” list.
The firm pointed to three key drivers: “(1) New model launches; (2) New ADAS and new chips; and (3) Cost savings.”
According to weekly registration data published last week on Chinese social media, the Shanghai-based premium brand registered 5,400 vehicles in the third week of the month, setting a new weekly sales record in 2025 for the second week in a row.
Jeff Chung said Citi estimates Nio to “potentially deliver 63k units” in the second quarter of the year which would represent a sequential jump of 50%. “Followed by 100-120k units in 3Q, and 120-150k units in 4Q,” the analyst wrote.
“This may re-rate FY26 volume to 600k units, versus our current forecast at 456k units,” Chung wrote raising next year’s sales estimates by 31.6%.
After unveiling its debut model, the L60, a year ago, Nio’s cheaper brand Onvo presented last week the second one — a three-row SUV named L90.
According to the company’s co-founder and President Lihong Qin, the first deliveries “will be in the second half of August” after the official launch takes place in July.
Regarding Firefly, deliveries in China will begin this week with 16 international countries planned for the cytidine brand later this year. Right hand drive markets such as Singapore and the UK are among them.
