XPeng held its 2025 AI Day on Wednesday at its Guangzhou headquarters, unveiling new details on its upcoming Robotaxi, the IRON humanoid robot, and its six-seat flying car.
The company’s founder and CEO He Xiaopeng said XPeng plans to launch three robotaxi models in 2026: a 5-seater, a 6-seater and a 7-seater.
Commenting on the event, Bernstein reiterated its $21 price target on the US-listed shares, which indicates a bearish stance on the company. The Market Perform rating was also maintained.
In the new research note published on Thursday — and obtained by PriceTarget — analyst Eunice Lee said that the firm remains cautious on both the timely launch of the project and the material impact in the company’s financials.
“We don’t expect any material boost to XPeng‘s financials in the next 12-24 months,” Lee wrote.
At the same time, the analyst alerted that “while mass production of robotaxis is planned for 2026, it will be followed by licensing and safety mileage accumulation before fully driverless operation licenses can be granted, likely in 2027 or later.”
Robotaxi Costs
Eunice Lee wrote that the company’s robotaxi advantage “lies in lower manufacturing costs and larger-scale data collection.”
According to the analyst, each vehicle incorporated in the project could be below 200,000 yuan (about $28,000) — way below the estimated cost prices of competitors Waymo (at $100,000), Pony ($42,100) and Apollo ($34,400).
The automaker also benefits from in-house production and in-house chips, with its “existing large fleet on the road also provides a data advantage crucial for optimizing autonomous driving software.”
Ride-hailing Segment
Bernstein flagged a few challenges on the timely deployment of the project — which is set to launch next year.
These include the “technological leap from Level 2+ (driver-assisted) to Level 4 (fully driverless), requiring significant redundancy threshold and safety validation.”
At the same time, the analyst reminded that the ride-hailing market is majorly held by Didi in China, with about 70% of the share, which might limit “network effect.”
However, “XPeng‘s partnership with Amap will be helpful,” Lee stated.
Alibaba-backed Amap was founded two decades ago and provides digital maps, navigation services, and real-time traffic information across China.
The company also provides rides through over 80 major ride-hailing platforms, including taxi fleets.
Last month, EV maker Nio also announced it has partnered with Amap for corporate travel planning, through its business ride-hailing service.
Volkswagen
In a media roundtable held after the main event, XPeng‘s founder and CEO He Xiaopeng said that the company is planning to open-source its autonomous driving stack to commercial partners, including chips, EEA architecture and VLA/VLM models.
“Today we officially announce XPeng will open-source 2nd-gen VLA globally,” he noted, adding that “Volkswagen will be our launch customer, and XPeng‘s Turing AI chips have been selected by VW.”
The information, now confirmed by management, had been first reported in early October.
Chinese media outlet CarNewsChina said that the first model to feature the AD software will be a mid-size SUV.
By then, the outlet also said VW was already testing XPeng‘s XNGP on the upcoming EV, with mass production set to start in 2026.
Stock Performance
XPeng’s shares closed nearly 4% lower on Wednesday at $21.79. Based on the firm’s price target, the stock could fall another 3.6%.
The company’s shares hit their 2025 high of $27.16 in early March, then slid significantly over the following weeks, dropping to below $17.
That same day, XPeng introduced its refreshed X9 MPV, but the stock continued decline was mostly driven by rising global trade tensions, including increased US tariffs on Chinese imports.
The stock’s lowest price this year was on the first trading day of the year, when shares were at $11.14, meaning the stock has almost doubled since then.
On Thursday’s pre-market session, XPeng is trading nearly 7% higher at $23.31.
