XPeng said on Friday it expects first-quarter vehicle deliveries to fall sharply compared to both the same quarter a year ago and the final three months of 2025.
The guidance was provided on Friday, as the company published its fourth-quarter earnings report, posting its first quarterly net profit.
In the first two months of 2026, XPeng delivered 35,267 vehicles, with figures plunging in February also due to a longer Chinese New Year holiday — which disrupted production and sales for about half of the month.
The company is expecting total deliveries between January and March to reach between 61,000 and 66,000 vehicles, according to the quarterly guidance.
The figures imply an year-over-year decrease of approximately 29.8% and 35.1%, considering the 94,008 vehicles sold in the first quarter of 2025.
Compared to the final months of last year, when 116,249 vehicles were delivered, the estimate implies a plunge of between 43.2% and 47.5%.
Monthly Sales
XPeng delivered 20,011 vehicles in January and an additional 15,256 in February.
Reduced incentives in China — the world’s largest automotive market — led to steeper delivery declines for several automakers in the first month of the year.
February — which marked XPeng‘s lowest result since August 2024 — was further impacted by the longer-than-usual Chinese New Year Holiday period.
China’s Passenger Car Association (CPCA) had warned that February would see “the year’s absolute trough,” as the nine-day holiday left only 16 working days last month.
Additionally, the organization warned most brands were planning vehicle launches for the post-holiday period — including XPeng‘s upcoming three-row SUV GX — which contributed to “short-term volatility in both orders and deliveries.”
The monthly figures imply that the Guangzhou-based automaker is estimating March deliveries to be between 25,733 and 30,733 units.
The guidance suggests that sales could jump between 68.7% and 101.4% this month.
However, the higher end of the target is still below the 33,205 units delivered in March 2025.
2026 Outlook
XPeng aims to deliver between 550,000 and 600,000 vehicles globally this year.
Considering the first two months of the year, the carmaker has achieved 6.4% of the low end of its target.
The guidance represents a 28.1% to 39.7% growth considering the 429,445 vehicles delivered in 2025.
Full-year 2025 deliveries were 13% above the guidance issued last year — of 380,000 vehicles — which XPeng reached in November, one month ahead of schedule.
Friday’s quarterly report neither reiterates nor alters XPeng‘s full-year delivery guidance.
However, it suggests that the first quarter will be the company’s weakest of the year — a common pattern in the auto industry — with deliveries expected to be at their lowest level since the third quarter of 2024.
The guidance implies that the first quarter will represent between 11.1% and 12% of annual deliveries.
For comparison, the first quarter of 2025 accounted for 21.9% of that year’s total.
In 2024, XPeng delivered 21,821 electric vehicles between January and March — a 23.8% share of the 91,507 units delivered for the full year.
Market and Portfolio Expansion
XPeng‘s overseas deliveries have been rising steadily as the company ramps up its international push, which began in 2020 with its entry into Norway.
Since then, and particularly from 2024 onward, the company has expanded its presence to 60 markets outside China.
In 2025, the brand delivered 45,008 vehicles internationally — roughly 10% of its total deliveries for the year.
XPeng is now targeting double that figure in 2026.
The automaker began the year by debuting the new P7+ across 36 markets simultaneously, a sedan available in both EREV and BEV versions.
The launch came just two months after the company began producing extended-range vehicles, with the Super-Extended Range X9 MPV.
XPeng also launched the third generation of its fully electric G6 and G9 SUVs in China.
Earlier this month, the brand debuted an EREV version of the entry-level SUV and the Gen 3 of the fully electric X9 MPV.
XPeng is also expected to launch seven models in 2026, including range-extended variants of already existing fully electric vehicles.
It will include two SUVs in its Mona series, the most affordable in the lineup.
Additionally, the automaker unveiled its first flagship three-row SUV, the GX.
The new model — which is scheduled to be launched “in the months ahead”— has been undergoing road testing in China for the past several months.
XPeng will enter the competitive market of six-seat SUVs in China with its latest model, set to rival models such as the new-generation Nio ES8 and the upcoming, larger ES9, the Onvo L90, the Li Auto i8, the Tesla Model Y L, and the Zeekr 9X.
