XPeng released its fourth-quarter earnings results last Friday, posting its first-ever quarterly net profit.
The company’s weaker-than-expected first quarter sales guidance has tempered Wall Street enthusiasm.
Barclays and Macquarie published on Monday new research notes lowering their price target on XPeng‘s US-listed shares, citing weaker-than-expected vehicle delivery guidance and higher anticipated expenses.
The British bank has trimmed its price target on the Chinese automaker to $16 from $17, while maintaining an Underweight rating.
Meanwhile, the Australian finance group has downgraded the stock to Neutral from Outperform, lowering its price target by $5 to $19.
XPeng‘s shares closed 8.4% lower at $17.55 on Friday, placing the stock between the two targets — with Barclays’ implying a further 8.8% downside and Macquarie’s still suggesting an 8.3% upside.
As of press time, the stock was trading 4.2% higher at $18.29 during Monday’s pre-market trading session.
Q1 Guidance
Macquarie analyst Eugene Hsiao warned in a new research note that, while the firm “still like[s] XPeng‘s physical AI optionality,” they “cannot ignore the hard truth that volume growth is no guarantee this year.”
XPeng said on Friday it expects a significant sales slump in the first quarter of the year, with between 61,000 and 66,000 units delivered globally.
The company delivered 116,249 EVs during the quarter with gross margin climbing to a record 21.3%, up sharply from 14.4% in the same period a year earlier.
In the first two months of 2026, the company delivered 35,267 vehicles, which implies that it expects March’s figures to account for between 25,733 and 30,733 units.
The higher end of the target is still below the 33,205 units delivered in March 2025.
Hsaio noted that Macquarie has lowered its full-year 2026 unit volume estimates by 7% “on soft early demand.”
Barclays analyst Jiong Shao also flagged that the first quarter delivery guidance was “a bit below our expectations.”
New Releases
The London-based firm is focusing on the company’s upcoming models, despite warning on the effect of government policies and the highly competitive EV market in China.
“The issue we see is that ’26 is shaping up as a pretty difficult year for NEVs in China,” the analyst stated, considering the government’s setback on tax incentives.
At the same time, “while management is hopeful and optimistic about the sales of their new models, visibility into the success of these new models is limited, needless to say,” Shao added.
XPeng plans to launch seven models in 2026 — four all-new vehicles spanning full-size to compact segments, plus three range-extended variants (EREV) of existing fully electric models.
Among the highlights is the XPeng GX — the brand’s first flagship six-seat, three-row SUV, which has been road-testing in China for several months and is set to open pre-orders in the second quarter.
The six-seat segment is, however, one of the most competitive right now.
The GX will rival models such as the new-generation Nio ES8 and the upcoming, larger ES9, the Onvo L90, the Li Auto i8, the Tesla Model Y L, and the Zeekr 9X
Upcoming launches also include two new SUVs under the more affordable Mona series, as the company looks to broaden its reach across price segments.
The first one was spotted on Monday with no camouflage for the first time.
According to Macquarie’s analyst Eugene Hsiao, “shares typically outperform when XPeng releases a clear hit product,” which happened with the recently — and globally — launched P7+ and the Mona M03 (the company’s best-seller).
However, “it remains too early to judge if the upcoming GX or new Mona SUV series in 2H25 will have a similar impact,” Hsiao concluded.
Overseas Sales
The company’s founder and CEO He Xiaopeng said last week that “as deliveries of new models ramp up, we’ll achieve strong quarter-over-quarter growth in volume.”
However, and according to Barclays’ analyst Jiong Shao, “the only bright spot we see for Chinese EV makers is the overseas market.”
Shao said the firm agrees with management that “the company should focus on growing its overseas sales by over 100%” this year, to represent over 20% of total vehicle sales.
In 2025, the brand delivered 45,008 vehicles internationally — roughly 10% of its total deliveries for the year — which indicates that it must sell 90,016 vehicles overseas this year to reach the target.
The company aims to reach 1 million vehicle sales in international markets by 2030.
Last year, XPeng also doubled its market presence to 60 markets.
AI and Expenses
Barclays analyst Jiong Shao highlighted that XPeng “has been aggressively investing in robotaxi and humanoid robots and has some aspirational year-end targets for both new initiatives.”
XPeng announced last November its plans to launch three robotaxi models in 2026 — a 5-seater, a 6-seater, and a 7-seater.
The company will begin manned pilot operations with safety drivers in the second half of the year and is targeting fully driverless operation in early 2027.
Rapid growth in the robotaxi business is anticipated between 2027 and 2028.
Despite the advancements, Shao wrote this Monday that Barclays is “a bit concerned about both the company’s resources and management stretching itself a bit too thin when investing in multiple new areas,” Shao wrote this Monday.
The company invested a total of 9.5 billion yuan ($1.4 billion) in R&D throughout 2025, of which 4.5 billion yuan ($652 million) was allocated to AI.
XPeng announced on Friday it plans to invest 7 billion yuan in physical AI-related R&D this year, on top of its existing vehicle development budget.
Macquarie’s full-year estimates on loss per share dropped to -1.28 yuan — from -0.45 yuan — “amid higher R&D spend,” according to Eugene Hsiao.
