Wolfe Research has reiterated a Peerperform rating on Tesla, as the firm remains cautious on fundamentals despite previewing a catalyst-rich year ahead for the stock.
Analyst Emmanuel Rosner wrote in a new research note that the catalysts include the Optimus V3 launch in the first quarter, the Cybercab start of production in April and the expansion of the Robotaxi service across the US.
“As it relates to the stock, we remain tactically constructive,” the analyst stated, flagging, however, that “it’s difficult to have high confidence in the success of all of Tesla‘s initiatives, especially as timing can shift around.”
Tesla announced it plans to more than double capital spending to a record high of more than $20 billion in 2026 as the company progresses toward autonomy.
According to Rosner, “ultimately, the company’s plan to ramp up spending considerably suggests they are very confident.”
This includes a $2 billion investment in Elon Musk’s AI-focused company xAI.
xAI was acquired by SpaceX on Monday.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives commented on the deal, saying Tesla could be the next asset folded into Elon Musk’s expanding conglomerate.
Tesla shares have lost 15% of their value since the stock’s peak at $498.83 in the final days of 2025.
As of press time, the company was trading nearly 5% lower at $402 on Wednesday’s market session.
Robotaxi
The analyst believes key performance indicators in 2026 will be a rapid Robotaxi expansion, including “both the ODD [Operational Design Domain] and user base,” and the expansion of unsupervised Full Self-Driving.
Tesla is planning to expand the service to Texas cities of Dallas and Houston in the first half, as it ramps up the unsupervised service in Austin, where it was first launched last June.
Other upcoming locations include Phoenix, in Arizona, Miami, Orlando and Tampa in Florida, and Las Vegas in Nevada.
“If successful, the long-term ROI [return on investment] could be very attractive,” Rosner wrote.
Wolfe’s top-down Robotaxi model suggests that revenue could reach $250 billion by 2035, Rosner wrote, adding that if the milestone is reached, “that could support ~$2.75 trillion in equity value.”
The calculations were made estimating a 30% autonomous vehicle penetration in the ride-hailing market by then, with Tesla‘s Robotaxi having a 50% market share and a cost per mile of $1.
Musk stated last month that it’s “probably true” that, with the Cybercab model, the Robotaxi service could cost less than $0.20 per mile by 2030, based on a Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest report.
Two weeks ago, and just hours after Tesla launched its first public Robotaxi rides without safety drivers inside, Barclays analyst Dan Levy warned investors against being overly optimistic about the service, highlighting concerns about its ability to scale.
After the initial news of the unsupervised rides rollout, Tesla’s VP of AI Software Ashok Elluswamy clarified on X that they were “starting with a few unsupervised vehicles mixed in with the broader robotaxi fleet with safety monitors.”
Last week, Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said the company already had “cars operating with no one in them and no safety monitor and no follow car or anything like that in Austin right now.”
EPS Estimates
Rosner also wrote that Wolfe has updated their estimates following the company’s recently disclosed fourth-quarter results.
“Overall, we remain below Consensus for 2026 / 2027, with our EPS moving to $1.60 / $2.17 from $1.85 / $2.37 and versus the Street at $1.99 / $2.63,” the analyst wrote before revealing Wolfe’s 2028 forecast of $2.51 per share.
Tesla reported a 47% drop in GAAP diluted EPS to $1.08, with non-GAAP diluted EPS down 28% to $1.66.
The Austin-based company posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.50, beating the $0.44 analyst consensus based on Tesla‘s survey of 19 analysts released on January 22.
Revenue came in at $24.9 billion, above the $24.5 billion estimate.
