What 10 Wall Street Analysts Say About Tesla’s Q1 Earnings Results

Tesla reported its highly anticipated first quarter earnings on Tuesday, amid weaker-than-expected deliveries, uncertainty over tariffs impact and investors’ pressure on both the launch of fully autonomous rides and the affordable model.

The company posted a 15% decline in gross profit to $3.15 billion and a 20% drop in automotive revenue year over year to $13.97 billion, while earnings per share (EPS) stood at $0.27, $0.15 below the consensus estimate of $0.42.

Despite the earnings miss, Tesla shares opened 7% higher on Wednesday at $255 after Elon Musk announced his time allocation will shift towards Tesla starting next month.

As of Wednesday morning, the Wall Street analysts that already published their revised estimates on Tesla see a 36% upside potential for Tesla stock, with an average price target of $323.6.

On a new research note published this Wednesday, the analyst stated “it was a mixed report,” as “Tesla reported weaker first quarter non-GAAP EPS ($0.27 vs. the Street at $0.41) and declined to provide formal guidance in light of tariff uncertainty.”

However, Delaney added that “the 1Q automotive non-GAAP gross margin ex. regulatory credits was above consensus, and Tesla is still expecting to start its robotaxi operation in June albeit in small scale.”

Elon Musk reaffirmed on Tuesday’s earnings call that the paid rides service would be starting in Austin, in June, but stated that the autonomous vehicles will “probably” be Model Ys and that the service will start with “maybe 10 to 20 vehicles.”

The firm believes that “new models planned to launch later this year may be less unique than we’d expected,” as Musk revealed the highly expected affordable model will be a trim-down of their flagship SUV.

Delaney concluded that the negative results will be “offset by what we think will be improved longer-term profits driven in part by increased software revenue with FSD.”

Separately, Evercore ISI analyst Chris McNally reiterated an In-Line rating and a similar $235.00 price target on the stock.

“With CEO Elon Musk indicating his DOGE activity would diminish significantly in May, investor attention now shifts to the company’s execution on autonomous technology and the June launch of a paid ride service in Austin,” Rusch noted.

The analyst added that “given the long history of promises and delays on the [FSD] technology, we believe the company is largely in show-me territory with investors.”

Although the firm recognized that “manufacturing margins were better than feared,” Rusch stated that “those benefits are being offset by tariff expense.”

BofA’s analyst John Murphy added on a new research note that the gross margin was “better than expected”, above the firm’s estimate, although “adversely impacted by increased incentives and lower average selling prices on its vehicles.”

Kallo stated that “the re-ramp of the new Model Y, dragging margins, questions regarding brand deterioration (which was poorly addressed on the call), and disruptions to global supply chains […] are all near-term headwinds that we expect will weigh on shares.”

Despite that, the analyst sees shares driving “meaninfully higher” due to “catalysts” such as “the launch of robotaxi operations in Austin” and “the rollout of a new vehicle.”

Michaeli noted that “the picture has become more challenging (brand, tariffs, macro), but the upcoming catalyst path from new EVs and Robotics appears intact”, adding that “amid poor sentiment and reduced expectations, we still like risk/reward in a setup that’s somewhat reminiscent of last year’s.”

The firm highlighted Elon Musk’s DOGE commitment being “reduced starting next month”, the robotaxi launch still “on track with other cities expected later this year” and Tesla‘s upcoming affordable models.

Rakesh noted that the firm sees the Elon Musk-led brand “remaining the U.S. EV leader, offsetting some share loss in China as it launches a low-cost EV model in June.”

Analyst Daniel Ives commented that “last night was a pivotal conference call for Musk to turn the corner from this […] disaster quarter in which deliveries were very soft and Tesla missed the Street on basically every metric.”

The analyst noted that “this was the time Musk could pivot, speak to shareholders/employees, and take a turn away from the DOGE/Trump White House and recommit as CEO of Tesla.” Ives had urged Musk to return to the company as “full time CEO” earlier this week.

“Musk recommitting as CEO as Tesla and basically leaving his DOGE role over the next month is the biggest and best possible news Tesla investors could have heard last night. Some of the brand damage will slowly go away…but importantly Tesla got back its biggest asset,” the analyst highlighted.

Analyst Alexander Potter noted that the firm “predicted that (at best) first quarter would be a non-event,” which was confirmed with “the stock trading up slightly in the after-hours session.”

“In our view, the most important first quarter takeaway is this: Tesla didn’t hedge expectations,” Potter states, highlighting that the company is going forward with “robotaxis” and “lower-priced vehicles” in the first half of 2025. 

Other bullish leaning firms like Canaccord Genuity have altered their price targets — in this case, analyst George Gianarikas slashed the company’s price target by 25% to $303 (from $404). However, the firm maintained its Buy rating on the stock.