Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said Friday that Tesla‘s fourth-quarter deliveries came in “slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k” units.
Ives, one of Wall Street’s most bullish Tesla analysts, maintained his Outperform rating and $600 price target on the stock following the release of production and delivery figures.
The analyst cited a “more difficult demand environment” after the expiration of the US EV tax credit “while Europe remains a headwind” to Tesla deliveries.
Tesla delivered 418,227 electric vehicles in the fourth quarter while producing 434,358 units, missing Wall Street estimates as EV sales slowed following the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit on September 30.
The Elon Musk-led company delivered 1,636,129 vehicles in 2025, down 8.6% from 1,789,226 units in 2024 — marking Tesla‘s second annual decline since 2020.
BYD sold 2.26 million fully electric vehicles for the full year, an increase of 28% from 2024, surpassing Tesla as the world’s largest EV maker.
$2 Trillion Market Cap
Ives said the 1.63 million vehicles delivered in 2025 “sets the company up to succeed into 2026 and beyond from a delivery perspective.”
Tesla currently has a market capitalization of $1.50 trillion.
Ives said the company can add another $500 billion this year — or even double to $3 trillion in the firm’s bull case scenario.
“We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap,” Ives wrote.
“Our bull case scenario is $800 for Tesla over the next 12 to 18 months.”
Autonomous Opportunity
Ives said Tesla has started testing the Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, with volume production expected to begin in April or May.
“The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation,” Ives wrote.
The analyst expects an easing of the federal framework for autonomous vehicles in early 2026, with more power going to federal regulators under an executive order.
“We estimate the AI and autonomous opportunity is worth at least $1 trillion alone for Tesla and we fully expect over the coming 3-6 months these key initiatives will now get fast tracked as the federal regulatory spiderweb that Musk & Co. have encountered over the past few years around FSD/autonomous clears significantly under Trump,” Ives wrote.
“We believe Tesla will own ~70% of the global autonomous market over the next decade as no other company in the world can match the scale and scope of Tesla coupled with its broadening AI footprint.”
Europe Headwind
Ives said Europe remains a challenging market for Tesla, with Full Self-Driving software approval serving as a potential catalyst for sales recovery.
“Europe remains a continuous headwind for TSLA with the company still having difficulty obtaining regulatory approval for its FSD tech with sales in the region waiting to rebound once FSD gets the go-ahead from regulators which we believe will happen in 1H26,” he wrote.
