UBS analyst Joseph Spak weighed in on Tesla‘s latest delivery results, two weeks after lowering his forecast on the company’s sales for the final quarter of the year.
By then, Spak questioned whether “the market no longer cares about deliveries and only robotaxi and Optimus developments.”
In a new research note this Monday, obtained by PriceTarget, the analyst reaffirmed that “the bull case on Tesla remains about” the two projects.
Spak identified several catalysts for the company’s valuation, including the removal of the safety driver in Austin, the city expansion and the public launch of the Robotaxi.
Additionally, the analyst expects updates on Full-Self Driving (FSD) Version 14, the start of Cybercab production, and progress on Optimus V3.
Despite the firm being “more positive than not on Tesla tech and progress,” with the belief that “there could be a strong milestone catalyst path,” Spak said that investors have already priced in the expected success.
“We do believe that many of these ventures/milestones are already (more than) baked into the stock price,” he wrote.
The analyst added that it was Tesla‘s autonomy projects that drove the company’s valuation to its current level, noting that “the stock continues to move higher despite EV sales declines and negative earnings revisions.”
According to Spak, the consensus for 2025 and 2026 earnings per share (EPS) is about 50% and 46% lower than a year ago.
Stock Performance
Stating that the bank’s “bear case remains more anchored to valuation,” Spak reiterated a price target of $247 on Tesla, which implies a downside of 43.6% on the stock, based on Friday’s closing price of $438.07.
Up until mid-2025, Spak had a $119 price target on Tesla, which was increased over the summer as the stock jumped.
Tesla’s stock experienced a highly volatile 2025.
After hitting an all-time high of $488 in late 2024, it opened the year on January 2 at $390.
The stock then plunged over the next four months, reaching a low of $214.25 on April 7. It recovered to around $300 in July and climbed above $400 by mid-September.
News on the Full-Self Driving (FSD) software and the rollout of the Robotaxi service propelled Tesla to a new peak of $498.83 on December 22.
As of press time, Tesla shares were trading 3.8% higher at $455.
Deliveries Below Consensus
UBS expected Tesla to deliver between 405,000 and 415,000 vehicles in the final quarter of 2025, a 16–18% drop from the 495,570 vehicles delivered in the same quarter the previous year.
However, last Friday, Tesla reported 418,227 vehicles delivered — slightly above the bank’s range but below the company-compiled consensus forecast of 422,850 vehicles from 20 sell-side analysts.
Figures were expected to decrease as Tesla reached a record 497,099 vehicle deliveries in the third quarter, driven by a demand surge ahead of the EV tax credit deadline on September 30.
Annual deliveries were about 150,000 units below last year, at 1,636,129 vehicles.
The numbers mark Tesla‘s second annual decline since 2020, also falling slightly below analyst expectations of 1,640,752 vehicles.
Analysts Reaction
Since Friday, several analysts have commented on the delivery results.
HSBC analyst Michael Tyndall, who also has a bearish price target on Tesla at $131, flagged the weak performance amid the launch of the lower-priced Standard models, which failed to drive demand in the last quarter of 2025.
Stephen Gengaro, from Stifel, maintained a $508 price target on the company, said fourth-quarter deliveries were “about neutral for the shares, adding that details on margins are expected when Tesla reports fourth-quarter earnings on January 28.
Over the weekend, Canaccord’s George Gianarikas wrote that “2026 is shaping up to be a bountiful year for Tesla,” with the upcoming autonomy updates.
The analyst reaffirmed a $551 price target on the stock, while Wedbush’s Dan Ives reiterated a $600 target on Tesla shares.
The analyst cited a “more difficult demand environment” after the expiration of the US EV tax credit, with Europe remaining “a headwind” to the company.
Despite setting a new sales record in Norway in 2025, Tesla’s registrations generally declined across the continent, as results already disclosed have shown.
