Swiss bank UBS reaffirmed on Tuesday its bearish stance on Tesla ahead of the end of the quarter and the year, flagging concerns about the company’s upcoming vehicle delivery report.
In a new research note obtained by PriceTarget, analyst Joseph Spak questions whether “the market no longer cares about deliveries and only robotaxi and Optimus developments.”
Several firms have increased their valuation on the company, highlighting its autonomy-related projects over the past days, including Canaccord, Truist Securities and Wedbush.
All of these firms have set — or reaffirmed — price targets for the company’s stock ranging from $444 to $600.
With a Sell rating on Tesla‘s stock, however, the bank reaffirmed its $247 price target — about $150 below the current trading price.
The target implies that the share value could nearly halve based on Monday’s close at $488.73.
Stock Performance
The stock reached a new all-time high at $498.83 this Monday, after a Delaware court ruled for the reinstatement of Musk’s 2018 pay package.
Tesla‘s share value reached a new record since December 2024 last Tuesday, when it traded above $488.54. On Wednesday, it went up to $495.28.
The stock has jumped 16.2% over the past 30 days, mostly due to continued progress on the company’s autonomous projects, namely the Robotaxi deployment.
Delivery Forecast
The firm lowered its fourth quarter delivery forecast from 429,000 vehicles to 415,000 — which was already below Visible Alpha’s consensus of 435,000 units.
The firm expects deliveries to fall about 16% both compared with the previous quarter and the same period last year.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, typically the strongest quarter of the year, the company delivered 495,570 vehicles.
Deliveries then dropped to 336,681 in the first quarter of 2025, as is common in the industry, and rose to 384,122 in the second quarter.
In the third quarter, however, driven by the September 30 deadline for the federal EV tax credit in the US, Tesla deliveries surged to a record 497,099 vehicles in just three months.
Deliveries rose 7% compared with the same quarter last year and 30% from the previous quarter.
This marked the first quarter in 2025 in which deliveries increased year-over-year.
Outlook
Several other countries are also winding down EV incentives by the end of the year, including Norway, where Tesla is a best-seller, and China, where the EV landscape is extremely competitive.
While that could lead to a demand increase in the final quarter of the year, it might not be enough to surpass last quarter’s figures.
“Historically, despite print that may be inline with buy-side expectations, we tend to find the stock does react to beat/misses vs. the headline number,” Spak noted.
Tesla is expected to release its Q4 2025 production and delivery figures on January 2.
