Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard on Tuesday previewed Tesla’s upcoming earnings report, saying he expects the company’s 2026 vehicle delivery outlook to indicate how it plans to guide its growth going forward.
The company is expected to release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results on Wednesday (January 28), followed by an earnings call scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Central Time.
In a new note first obtained by PriceTarget, the analyst highlighted lower vehicle deliveries in both the fourth quarter — affected by the expiration of the EV tax credit on September 30 — and the full year 2025.
Last year marked Tesla’s second consecutive year of declining sales, and the first time it was outsold by BYD’s fully electric vehicles.
Vehicle Sales
The company delivered 418,227 vehicles in the final three months of 2025, a decline from the 497,099-unit record in the prior quarter.
The yearly total reached 1,636,129 million vehicles, below the consensus of 1,640,752 and down by around 100,000 units compared to 2024.
Cantor expects “Tesla to likely disclose its 2026 vehicle delivery outlook, and it will be interesting to see whether Tesla guides to growth in its auto business, or another year of fewer sales.”
Consensus estimates project revenue of $24.5 billion for the fourth quarter and $94.4 billion for the full year of 2025.
Both figures would represent a decline from $25.7 billion in Q4 2024 and $97.7 billion for all of 2024, as the final quarter of 2025 was atypical due to policy changes.
The figures suggest a drop of roughly $400 million from the $28.1 billion in revenue reported in the third quarter, driven by a decline in auto sales.
Despite Tesla‘s increasing bet on autonomy-related projects, the company’s revenue is still largely dependent on vehicle sales, which accounted for $21.2 billion (or 75%) of the total revenue in the third quarter.
Autonomy
Sheppard also expects Elon Musk to “provide additional information on Tesla‘s Robotaxi rollout” in the upcoming earnings call, following the recent removal of safety drivers in Austin.
Investors are seeking updates on the company’s plans to expand into multiple metro areas this year, which Cantor expects to occur in the first half.
During an interview at the World Economic Forum (WEF), Musk stated that the “Robotaxi service will be very, very widespread by the end of this year within the US.”
Additionally, the company has expanded public road testing of the Cybercab model, scheduled to begin production in April, to five US states.
Cantor previews that the Cybercab will be introduced in the Robotaxi service by the second half.
Last week, hours after Elon Musk announced that public Robotaxi rides without safety monitors had begun in Austin, VP of AI Software Ashok Elluswamy clarified that this applied to only a small number of vehicles in the fleet.
As Tesla has repeatedly emphasized its commitment to safety, a “chase” car was seen following the Robotaxi during the rides.
FSD Expansion
Tesla expanded its Full-Self Driving software to Australia and New Zealand in the third quarter, Sheppard recalled. The system was also released in South Korea late last year.
“We continue to view the upcoming FSD commercialization in China and Europe as material catalysts and accretive to margins,” the analyst wrote.
Despite Tesla’s repeated claims that it expects regulatory approval in Europe and China in the first quarter, officials in both regions have said it is unclear whether approval will come next month — as Musk had suggested.
Cantor expects Tesla to “enter the self-driving trucking industry this decade,” still, with Sheppard adding that “we are also looking for an update on the timing of production of its Semi,” for which they estimate start of production in the second quarter.
Optimus
After Musk revealed at the WEF that the Optimus humanoid will be available for public purchase “by the end of next year.”
According to a report by MarkersandMarkets, cited by Cantor Fitzgerald, the humanoid robotics global market is estimated to grow from $2.9 billion in 2025 to $15.3 billion by 2030.
Sheppard believes “this is a material opportunity for Tesla over the long term.
The analyst hopes “for further details around Optimus’ mass production timeline, fleet size, or ASPs [average selling price]” on the upcoming call.
Stock Performance
Cantor Fitzgerald has an Overweight rating on Tesla, with a $510 price target.
The target implies an upside potential of 17.2% based on Monday’s closing at $435.20.
Tesla‘s stock secured an all-time high of $489.83 late last year, more than doubling from the lowest point of 2025, reached last April when shares traded at $215.
It has lost 12.8% of its value since then.
Most investors are focused on updates to autonomy-related projects in the upcoming earnings call, as they believe these projects will drive Tesla‘s stock.
According to CNBC’s ‘Mad Money’ host Jim Cramer this Monday, the company’s stock “is going to go sky high” as Tesla redefines itself as a non-car company, but a “robot company” instead.
Last week, Barclays analyst Dan Levy warned investors not to be overly optimistic about Tesla, even as he raised the price target by $10 to $360. The firm maintained a bearish view on the stock.
“While pulling the safety monitor is a notable accomplishment, we caution against over-optimism in Tesla‘s robotaxi narrative, especially with questions on scaling still outstanding,” Levy wrote.
