Written by Samuel O’Brient | Edited by Cláudio Afonso
Tesla stock has trended mostly upward over the past month, as the electric vehicle maker continues to recover from a challenging start to the year.
Expectations of strong third-quarter delivery results have erased year-to-date losses, with the stock closing 4% higher for the year on Wednesday.
The company’s first quarter delivery report sent shares down when Tesla displayed its first annual decline in vehicles delivered since 2020.
But almost two quarters later, experts are optimistic that Tesla is turning things around and will report an increase in deliveries for the thirs quarter. Multiple analysts have issued bullish predictions on Wednesday ahead of Tesla’s third quarter delivery report, scheduled for October 2.
That isn’t the only key date that could drive growth for TSLA stock in the coming month, however. Tesla is planning a highly anticipated robotaxi event.
Pushed back from its original August date, Robobaxi Day is expected to bring new updates on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) progress, specifically its driverless taxi known as “cybercab.” Given the company’s record of problems with its FSD technology on the road, many eyes will be on the event to see if Tesla will display real progress.
The company has a lot riding on both events as it prepares to enter October. However, Wall Street sentiment has been mostly positive recently as Tesla gears up for an important month.
The stock still has a “hold” consensus among 36 analysts, with 16 maintaining “Hold” ratings and only 12 calling it a “Buy.” However, Baird analyst Ben Kallo recently reiterated an “Outperform” rating with a bullish price target of $280. In a note to investors, he states:
“Previewing Q3 deliveries. We model 480K deliveries in Q3 vs. consensus ~461K and believe numbers are trending positively based on China insurance registrations, our checks with IR, and other third-party data.
Deliveries are the next expected data point, however, we speculate that investors may view this as a look through with such a large potential catalyst soon after.
The near-term setup is favorable in our view, and we are buyers into both the deliveries release (estimated 10/2) and the robotaxi event (10/10).
Teslarati reports that Kallo forecasts that Tesla will deliver 1.83 million vehicles in 2024.
Analyst Alexander Potter of Piper Sandler has released a new note on Wednesday maintaining an “Overweight” rating on Tesla stock and recently raised his already bullish price target of $300 to $310.
“We are increasing our Q3 and FY24 vehicle delivery estimates, after examining intra-quarter sales data,” he reports.
“In Q3, we are now modeling nearly 459k deliveries, representing growth of 3.3% q/q and 5.4% y/y. For the full year, we expect Tesla to deliver ~1.75M units, an increase of about 23,500 units vs. our previous estimate.
Potter also predicts that Q3 is likely to be Tesla’s best ever in China, noting that despite weak sales in Europe, demand for the Cybertruck in the U.S. could help offset this.
Tom Narayan of RBC Capital Markets isn’t as optimistic as Kallo and Potter. He maintains a price target for Tesla stock of $224, forecasting a downside given the stock’s current price of $257 — as of Wednesday’s close.
However, he reiterated an “Outperform” rating ahead of the October 2 delivery report, stating “We estimate Tesla deliveries of 460k in Q3/24, up 1.3% vs our prior estimate of 454k and in-line with consensus, based on registration data.”
Tesla stock has performed well so far this week, rising more than 9 percent over the past five days. This momentum is likely to continue into early October if the company reports strong delivery numbers which will fuel Wall Street’s positive sentiment.
Six years later, the company will return to the Paris Auto Show and in full force. Tesla will showcase the Model S, 3, X, and Y but also the Cybertruck and the Gen 2 humanoid robot Optimus.
Written by Samuel O’Brient | Edited by Cláudio Afonso