Written by Cláudio Afonso | LinkedIn | X
Tesla sales in China continued to ramp up in China last week with 15,300 vehicles registered reaching the best week of the year as the production ramp-up of the new Model Y continues.
Data shared by the carmaker Li Auto showed on Tuesday that the company recorded 9,500 Model Y (up from 8,700) and 5,800 Model 3 vehicles (up from 5,100) between March 10 and 16.
After the 11th week of the year, first quarter sales are down 4.4% year-over-year and 38.2% when compared to the final quarter of 2024.
The factory initially faced a slowdown in early 2025, with registrations dropping to just 400 units in the week it started deliveries of the SUV in the country. Over the three following weeks, Tesla registered 6,700, 8,700 and 9,500 units.
On February 26, Tesla began deliveries of the refreshed Model Y “Launch Series” edition with the first European and U.S. deliveries following on March 8.
For now, the Shanghai plant is producing only the Launch Series edition, which includes Full Self-Driving software, an acceleration boost, vegan suede interior, and exclusive badging.
Three additional refreshed Model Y variants—rear-wheel drive, long-range rear-wheel drive, and long-range all-wheel drive— have recently become available, with a seven-seater version expected later this year.
For the full month of February, Tesla sold 26,777 vehicles in China’s domestic market, down 11.2% year-on-year and 20.6% from January, data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) showed earlier this week.
Tesla’s China operations have historically focused on exports in the first half of each quarter before shifting to local deliveries. The latest registration figures suggest an acceleration in domestic production for the refreshed Model Y.
The U.S. carmaker sold a total of 30,688 vehicles in China last month, including 3,911 units for export. Exports from Tesla’s Shanghai plant fell 87% from 30,224 units a year earlier and 87% from 29,535 in January.
Price Target Cut
RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan lowered on Tuesday the price target on Tesla shares to $320.00, down from $440.00 on lower Full Self Driving (FSD) pricing and robotaxi penetration assumptions.
“Much of the attention around Tesla has centered on its recent delivery performance in Jan and Feb in Europe and China. We think fears demand could be overblown however,” Narayan wrote in a new research note.
The analyst kept an Outperform rating despite the price target reduction.
“That said, in this report, we lower our FSD pricing and robotaxi penetration assumptions. This causes us to reduce our PT to $320 from $440,” RBC Capital analyst wrote. “We maintain our Outperform rating however.”
Narayan expects Tesla to cut FSD’s subscription pricing by 50% to $50/month next year. “Previously we assumed that pricing declined to $50/mo and then ramped back to $100/mo by 2030 given level 4 options, which we thought could command higher pricing,” he wrote.
As of the time of writing, Tesla shares are trading 1% lower at $236.
