Written by Cláudio Afonso | LinkedIn | X
Tesla on Friday released its company-compiled delivery consensus for the first quarter, showing Wall Street analysts expect the automaker to deliver an average of 377,592 vehicles in the period.
The figure is based on estimates from 27 analysts and would mark Tesla’s weakest quarter since the third quarter of 2022, when it delivered 343,830 vehicles. Year over year, the result would represent a 2.38% drop.
Tesla began taking orders for the updated Model Y in China on January 10, followed by order openings in Europe and North America two weeks later. On the last day of January, the company confirmed the refreshed version of the world’s best selling car in 2024 — was being produced across four factories in Fremont, California; Austin, Texas; Grünheide near Berlin; and Shanghai.
For the full year, Wall Street consensus is at 1,851,001 units while estimates for 2026 deliveries surpass 2.22 million vehicles.
Several analysts have revised down their projections in recent weeks, citing weaker than expected registration data for January and February.
“The firm estimates first-quarter deliveries to be ‘~350k units,’ a 10% drop from the first quarter of 2024 and a 30% sequential decline,” Barclays analyst Dan Levy wrote in a research note published last week, following earlier adjustments from Piper Sandler, and Morgan Stanley, which expects deliveries to fall 9.3% from a year ago.
Morgan Stanley now expects Tesla to deliver 351,000 vehicles in the quarter — a reduction of 64,000 units from its prior estimate.
Most of the updated Model Y vehicles are expected to be built at Giga Shanghai, Tesla’s largest plant with annual capacity exceeding 950,000 units for Model 3 and Y.
The Fremont factory follows with capacity for over 550,000 Model 3/Y units and 100,000 Model S/X, while Giga Berlin and Giga Texas each have Model Y capacity exceeding 250,000 units. Giga Texas also builds the Cybertruck.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh earlier this week lowered the firm’s full-year 2025 delivery forecast to 1.8 million vehicles from 2.3 million, citing “demand concerns and market headwinds.”
