Tesla published Wall Street delivery consensus estimates on its investor relations website for the first time Monday.
Such figures were previously shared only with analysts and often leaked on social media.
The company-compiled consensus from 20 sell-side analysts projects Tesla will deliver 422,850 vehicles in the fourth quarter, down from 497,099 in the third quarter and a 15% when compared to a year ago.
Energy storage deployments are expected to reach 13.4 GWh, according to estimates from 16 analysts.
For full-year 2025, analysts expect deliveries of 1,640,752 vehicles, an 8.3% decline from 2024’s 1,789,226 units.
The figure would mark Tesla‘s second consecutive annual sales decline.
“Tesla does not endorse any information, recommendations or conclusions made by the analysts,” the company stated. “Q3-2025 represents actual figures while Q4-2025 onwards represents company-compiled consensus estimates.”
Q3 Record
EV deliveries jumped across the industry as US consumers rushed to buy electric vehicles before the $7,500 federal tax credit expired at the end of September.
The company led by Elon Musk posted a record in the third quarter with 497,099 vehicles delivered in Q3, including 481,166 Model 3 and Model Y units and 15,933 from other models including the Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X.
The company produced 447,450 vehicles during the quarter.
The delivery consensus was compiled from estimates provided by Daiwa, Deutsche Bank, Wedbush, OpCo, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, Goldman Sachs, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Jefferies, Needham & Co, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair.
Forward Estimates
Analysts project Tesla deliveries will return to growth in 2026, with consensus estimates of 1,750,243 vehicles.
Estimates continue rising to 2,010,459 in 2027, 2,350,451 in 2028, and 3,019,902 in 2029.
Energy storage deployments are expected to reach 45.9 GWh for full-year 2025, rising to 63.9 GWh in 2026, 87.7 GWh in 2027, 112.5 GWh in 2028, and 141.8 GWh in 2029.
Baird Reaffirms Target
As reported earlier Tuesday, Baird reaffirmed its bullish price target on Tesla, highlighting autonomy developments as key potential drivers for the stock in 2026.
The firm’s $548 target implies potential upside of 19.2% based on the previous closing price, as it sees Tesla as a ‘core holding’ for next year.
