The first Wall Street reactions to Tesla’s first quarter miss on both vehicles delivered and energy storage deployment caused sharply different readings on Thursday.
Wedbush maintained its bullish stance on the company’s autonomous driving ambitions while William Blair and Oppenheimer flagged a steep shortfall in energy storage deployments and warned of near-term pressure on the stock.
Tesla shares were trading approximately 3% lower at $269 as of press time on Thursday.
Broader markets were also under pressure following President Donald Trump’s late Wednesday press conference on the Iran conflict, in which he said the US would “hit” Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks.
Tesla reported 358,023 vehicle deliveries and 408,386 units produced in the first quarter of 2026.
Deliveries rose 6.3% year over year but missed the consensus estimate of 365,645 from Tesla‘s own compilation of 23 sell-side analysts. Visible Alpha data showed an average expectation of 368,903.
Energy storage deployments came in at 8.8 GWh — a 38% drop from the record 14.2 GWh deployed in the fourth quarter of 2025 and well below the 14.4 GWh consensus.
The production-delivery gap was also notable.
Tesla built approximately 50,000 more vehicles than it delivered during the quarter, with the mismatch concentrated in the Model 3 and Model Y category, where production of 394,611 units outpaced deliveries of 341,893.
William Blair
William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer, who reiterated a Market Perform rating, called the energy storage result a “big miss,” noting it came in well below the Street consensus of 14.4 GWh and the firm’s own estimate of 18 GWh.
“This business can be lumpy and swing depending on customer grid hook-up timing, but that does not fully explain this drop-off,” Dorsheimer wrote.
“Our understanding of the demand environment has not changed, Megapacks continue to be critical to the AI data center and power buildout with evidence seen in our monthly Racks & Stacks piece, so we are confused as to what happened with supply this quarter,” he added.
Dorsheimer said that if the miss is primarily a timing issue, the second quarter “should see a large gap up.”
On the vehicle side, the analyst was more cautious.
He described the delivery miss as “slight” and noted that the Model 3 and Model Y shortfall was partially offset by stronger-than-expected sales of the Model S and Model X, driven by “last-chance purchases before those models are sunsetted.”
“We are not surprised this morning, global EV demand ex-China remains under pressure, and Tesla is actively sacrificing its EV business in favor of a fully autonomous future,” he wrote.
Wedbush
Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives reiterated his Outperform rating and $600 price target, largely looking past the delivery figures to focus on the company’s autonomous driving and robotics roadmap.
Ives said Tesla‘s long-term mission has shifted toward developing “a sustainable revenue stream from AI and robotics,” backed by approximately $20 billion in capital expenditure tied to new factories for the Cybercab, Optimus humanoid robot, battery production, and AI compute expansion.
He highlighted that volume production of the Cybercab is expected to start in April or May, calling it “the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
Tesla has already begun rolling out unsupervised robotaxi rides in Austin, which Ives described as “an incremental step towards launching in 2026 across multiple cities.”
On Full Self-Driving, Ives noted that Tesla‘s February switch to a subscription-only model — from the prior one-time purchase option — is expected to raise FSD penetration above 50% and “change the financial model and margins for Tesla.”
The analyst also pointed to the Gen 3 Optimus robot, which he said is on its way to mass production, with plans to convert the Model S and Model X production lines into Optimus manufacturing capacity targeting a one million-unit annual rate over the coming years.
Ives said he expects a federal regulatory framework for autonomous vehicles to ease throughout 2026, potentially through an executive order that would reduce state-level authority over autonomous driving rules.
“We continue to believe the most important chapter in Tesla‘s growth story is now beginning with the AI era here,” he wrote.
Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer struck a cautious tone, noting that vehicle deliveries represented a 2% miss against company-compiled estimates while energy storage deployments at 8.8 GWh were 32% below expectations, “as seasonality proved more substantial than expected.”
The firm acknowledged Tesla‘s “transformative capex” as it transitions to what it described as an “increasingly vertically integrated supply chain to support its Physical AI ambitions,” but said investors would be more focused on autonomy and humanoid progress when the company reports full financial results on April 22.
Oppenheimer said it expects management to discuss progress on those fronts but also “ongoing delays with full autonomy and preparedness of humanoids to ramp production.”
The firm added that it would “expect shares to maintain losses on the announcement this morning.”
Broader Context
Tesla has posted two consecutive years of declining annual deliveries for the first time in its history, falling from a peak of 1.81 million in 2023 to 1.79 million in 2024 and 1.64 million in 2025.
The expiry of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit at the end of September continues to weigh on US demand, adding to headwinds from intensifying competition in Europe and China.
Several automakers have recently scrapped EV model launches due to demand concerns.
Tesla will report its full first-quarter 2026 financial results on Wednesday, April 22 after the market close.
