Written by Cláudio Afonso | LinkedIn | X
Tesla’s production of the Cybertruck has fallen to its lowest level in at least four quarters, according to the data analyst TroyTeslike who cited VIN data.
Production of the premium Model S and Model X vehicles at Tesla’s Fremont factory has dropped to its lowest point in over three years, as the company prepares to launch refreshed versions of both models.
Cybertruck output at Tesla’s Giga Texas factory is “at its lowest in the last four quarters,” according to data compiled by long-time Tesla tracker Troy Teslike, who analyzes VIN registrations to estimate production volumes.
“I use DMV VIN data (Vehicle Identification Numbers) to track Tesla’s production across all models and factories in the US. This method has an accuracy rate of 98.6%,” Teslike wrote on X.
The slowdown comes as Tesla steps up marketing efforts for the Cybertruck, including launching 1.99% APR financing on new orders in the US starting March 6. The offer, available for Foundation Series orders placed after March 5, applies to 60-month loans with a 4% down payment. A 72-month loan is eligible for a 2.99% rate.
The same day, Tesla began offering free lifetime Supercharging on all new Foundation Series Cybertruck orders in Mexico and Canada.
Last week, the Cybertruck was subject to a physical recall by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, which warned that a decorative trim piece along both sides of the windshield could detach while driving. The recall affects more than 46,000 vehicles and marks the eighth recall since deliveries began just over a year ago.
Tesla is also seeking to bring the model to additional markets. “The only [product] we’re missing at the moment that we really want here is the Cybertruck, and we are in conversations trying to make that happen,” Thom Drew, Tesla’s Country Director for Australia and New Zealand, said in early March. “That’s something we are trying to influence.”
Model S/X Output Hits 3.5-Year Low
As recently teased by the VP of Vehicle Engineering, the company is preparing to unveil a refreshed version of its Model S and X lineup.
“VIN data as of March 27 shows that production of Model S and Model X at the Fremont factory is at its lowest point in the past 14 quarters,” Teslike said.
Tesla has not publicly confirmed details about the upcoming refresh, but hints have emerged. In February, Lars Moravy, Tesla’s VP of Engineering, said during an appearance on the Ride The Lightning podcast, “Just give it a minute. We’ll get there,” when asked about potential upgrades.
“The upgrade a couple [of] years ago was bigger than most people thought in terms of architecture and structure. And the car got a lot better too,” Moravy said. “But we’ll give it some love later this year and make sure it gets a little bit of the stuff we’ve been putting in 3 and Y.”
In early March, delivery windows for the Model S and X in Europe were pushed out to 4–5 months for all variants, up from 4–8 weeks. Tesla Japan has also announced it will stop accepting custom orders for the models on March 31, 2025. “After April 1, 2025, we will only be selling stock or used vehicles and will no longer be able to accept custom orders for new vehicles,” the company said.
Q1 Deliveries Seen at Multi-Year Low
Tesla last week released its internal delivery consensus for the first quarter, showing that 27 Wall Street analysts expect the company to report 377,592 vehicle deliveries. That would mark Tesla’s lowest quarterly result since Q3 2022, when it delivered 343,830 units. It would also represent a 2.4% decline from a year earlier.
Tesla began taking orders for the updated Model Y in China on Jan. 10, followed by order books opening in Europe and North America two weeks later. The refreshed version is now in production across four locations: Fremont, Austin, Grünheide near Berlin, and Shanghai.
Full-year delivery estimates stand at 1.85 million vehicles, with 2026 forecasts surpassing 2.22 million, according to consensus data. However, several analysts have trimmed their projections in recent weeks amid weaker-than-expected registration data in January and February.
The firm estimates first-quarter deliveries to be “~350k units,” a 10% drop from the first quarter of 2024 and a 30% sequential decline.” That followed downward revisions from Piper Sandler and Morgan Stanley, which expects a 9.3% year-on-year decline.
