Tesla is a few months away from beginning production of its purpose-built, fully autonomous vehicle, the Cybercab.
As CEO Elon Musk has previously stated, the company aims to produce one unit every 10 seconds, with a long-term goal of just five seconds per vehicle — the fastest production rate ever achieved in the automotive industry.
This will be possible through the ‘Unboxing’ manufacturing process, patented in late September, which will debut with Cybercab production.
Replying to an X post by Tesla shareholder Sawyer Merritt on Tuesday, Musk cautioned that these targets come with “the important caveat that initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve.”
“The speed of the production ramp is inversely proportionate to how many new parts and steps there are,” the Tesla CEO wrote, adding that it is especially true for models where “almost everything is new.”
“For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow,” Musk said, however adding that it will “eventually end up being insanely fast.”
Production Rate
During Tesla’s Annual Shareholder Meeting last November, Musk outlined the production timeline for the company’s upcoming autonomous-based products.
According to the CEO, production of the Cybercab model is set for April, while mass production of the third-gen Optimus robot is scheduled for 2027.
By then, Musk announced that 1 million Optimus units will be built in Tesla‘s Fremont plant, while 10 million units are planned for production in Texas yearly.
Last week, the CEO wrote in an X reply that it is “probably true” that the Optimus humanoid will make people forget that the company previously manufactured electric vehicles.
In a 2025 recap video published a few weeks ago, Tesla stated that Cybercab production has started; however, Musk commented on the post a few hours later, clarifying that the company was “just testing the production system.”
“Real production ramp starts in April,” the chief executive reiterated.
Cybercab Public Road Testing
Tesla has expanded public road testing of the Cybercab model to five US states — including California, Texas, New York, Illinois, and now Massachusetts.
The first Cybercab units had first been sighted on California roads in late October, near the company’s engineering headquarters.
Then, in late 2025, the first Cybercabs were spotted testing on public roads in Austin — where the Robotaxi service debuted months earlier, with modified Model Ys.
It is still unclear whether Tesla intends to keep these models under the service or if the upcoming fleet will only use Cybercab units.
Although the vehicle is intended to have no pedals or steering wheel, test vehicles still include features such as mirrors.
In August, Tesla’s VP of Engineering, Lars Moravy, acknowledged that there is a “Cybercab RC [remote controlled] fleet running around with a steering wheel,” though he clarified that it is “not for sale,” following speculation about the vehicles.
The model was recently spotted testing without mirrors; however, it still had pedals.
Cybercab Anticipation
Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas wrote earlier this month that “2026 is shaping up to be a bountiful year for Tesla with the anticipated scale-up of Cybercab and Optimus (Gen 3) production.”
He added that “only brands with strong products, cost discipline, and loyalty are positioned to keep/gain share. That’s a good thing for Tesla.”
The analyst has a $551 price target on the company’s stock.
Even bearish analysts see the upcoming Cybercab and Optimus as potential drivers for Tesla’s stock.
UBS analyst Joseph Spak, who has a Sell rating on Tesla shares, said they remain a positive catalyst on the stock.
However, UBS also believes that “many of these ventures/developments are already (more than) baked into the stock price.”
Earlier this month, Musk wrote on X that “there is so much to this car [Cybercab] that is not obvious on the surface.”
Criticism
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software relies entirely on a camera-only approach that has drawn criticism from people in the industry.
One notable critic is former Waymo CEO and current Rivian Board Member John Krafcik, who argues that LiDAR is a crucial component for improving the safety and reliability of self-driving systems.
Speaking with Automotive News earlier this month, Krafcik said that LiDAR and radar sensors provide “completely different modalities of active sensing to complement the passive sensing from the cameras.”
“With that level of data, you can do amazing things, as opposed to a car that has a really bad case of myopia, should be wearing glasses, and operates on a very limited data cycle,” the engineer added, referring to the Elon Musk-led company’s solution.
Krafcik thinks Tesla and Elon Musk have been deceiving customers for over a decade. According to him, “there should be some accountability for that.”
In early 2025, Krafcik had stated that Tesla‘s Robotaxi launch in Austin would be “fake,” as he noted that “there are many ways to fake a Robotaxi service.”
Months later, upon the actual debut of the service, Krafcik told Business Insider he was not interested in testing it, adding that “if they were striving to re-create today’s Bay Area Uber experience, looks like they’ve absolutely nailed it.”
“Please let me know when Tesla launches a robotaxi — I’m still waiting. It’s (rather obviously) not a robotaxi if there’s an employee inside the car,” Krafcik stated.
