Tesla CEO Elon Musk responded on Tuesday to a post on X recalling an eight-year-old JPMorgan sell recommendation, commenting “lol” on the bank’s original warning that a wave of German luxury EVs would erode Tesla‘s market position.
The comment comes just a day after the same bank reiterated its bearish stance on the automaker, reaffirming a $145 price target that implied roughly 60% downside from current levels.
Since JP Morgan’s April 20, 2018 note urging clients to sell Tesla shares because of impending competition from German brands, the stock has climbed roughly 1,771% (or ~18.7×) on a split-adjusted basis based on Wednesday’s pre-market trading price.
Tesla closed at $19.35 (split-adjusted) that day and it closed on Tuesday at $346.55 — which results in a 1,691% jump since JPMorgan’s Sell call.
Musk replied “lol” to a post resurfacing a 2018 CNBC article headlined “Sell Tesla shares because BMW, Audi competition is coming: JP Morgan.”
The story detailed the bank’s decision to reaffirm its Underweight rating on the company, citing rising competition from German premium automakers.
JP Morgan analysts argued at the time that Tesla‘s lead would narrow once similarly priced, long-range EVs from established luxury brands reached showrooms.
The throwback lands as German premium brands continue to recalibrate their electric strategies, with BMW, VW Group‘s Audi, and Mercedes-Benz all adjusting model timelines and volume targets in recent quarters.
Previous Comments
Tesla‘s CEO has repeatedly pushed back on analyst skepticism over the company’s competitive position, particularly in relation to legacy automakers’ EV programs.
Earlier this year, in a sit-down with Gigafactory Berlin head André Thierig, Musk said that legacy automakers were “heading in the direction of the dinosaurs.”
“Strategically, they’re heading in the direction of the dinosaurs, so they’re not heading in a good place. Dinosaurs are not around anymore,” he stated.
In August 2023, the Tesla CEO replied to a popular meme showing rival carmakers sitting inside a burning room.
“It is unfortunately trending that way for many automakers,” Musk wrote. “Some companies do understand, but their pace of change is nonetheless slow.”
In 2020, reacting to a report on German automakers falling behind Tesla, Musk posted that the company remained “open to licensing software and supplying powertrains & batteries.”
He added that Tesla was “just trying to accelerate sustainable energy, not crush competitors.”
Musk also stated last year that legacy automakers are not interested in Tesla‘s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software — for which the 14.3 version was released on Tuesday.
By then, the CEO said he “even offered to license Tesla FSD, but they don’t want it! Crazy.”
“When legacy auto does occasionally reach out, they tepidly discuss implementing FSD for a tiny program in 5 years with unworkable requirements for Tesla, so pointless,” he added.
Musk on Tesla Founding
The pattern goes back further.
On June 9, 2017, Musk used a series of posts on what was then Twitter to argue that Tesla had been founded as a direct response to legacy automakers shutting down their own electric programs.
“Few people know that we started Tesla when GM forcibly recalled all electric cars from customers in 2003,” Musk wrote, referencing General Motors‘ decision to pull and crush its EV1 fleet in California.
In the same thread, Musk claimed Tesla had been launched despite what he estimated was a 90% probability of failure, arguing that no established carmaker was willing to take electric vehicles seriously at the time.
The posts came as Tesla was preparing to start production of the Model 3, its first mass-market vehicle.
First Years
Tesla was incorporated in July 2003 by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, with Musk joining the Series A funding round in February 2004.
The company went public on the Nasdaq on June 29, 2010, pricing its initial public offering (IPO) at $17 per share and raising about $226 million.
Adjusted for the company’s two subsequent stock splits — a 5-for-1 in August 2020 and a 3-for-1 in August 2022 — that debut price translates to roughly $1.13 per share.
The stock closed its first trading day up 40.5% at $23.89 and finished 2010 at $25.83.
The company’s shares climbed steadily through the mid-2010s as the Model S, Model X and Model 3 reached the market, crossing $300 on a pre-split basis by the end of 2017 — around the time JP Morgan first told clients to sell.
Model 3 production struggles, Musk’s “funding secured” SEC settlement and demand concerns dragged shares to around $180 by mid-2019, before a rebound in the fourth quarter as the Shanghai GigaFactory ramped up manufacturing.
2020-2024 Performance
What followed was the strongest rally in the company’s history.
Tesla‘s stock rose roughly eightfold in 2020, leading the automaker to join the S&P 500. 2020 was Tesla‘s first full year of GAAP profitability.
The rally extended into 2021, with Tesla briefly surpassing a $1.2 trillion market capitalization. Last year, the market cap surpassed $1.3 trillion.
The trend reversed in 2022, with Tesla‘s worst year on record — when the stock plunged 65.0%, trading between a high of $400 and a low of $100 and closing at $123.18 on December 31, 2022.
It took the following two years to recover to figures higher than $400 per share. In 2024, Tesla set a new all-time high at $488.54.
2025’s Volatile Trading
The stock plunged to less than half of its all-time high in the first months of 2025, hitting a low of $214.25 exactly a year ago.
The drop was attributed to weaker vehicle sales in Europe and brand reputation damage linked to CEO Elon Musk’s political activity in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and in the German elections.
“We struggle to think of anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry, in which a brand has lost so much value so quickly,” JP Morgan’s analyst Ryan Brinkman wrote last April.
In the same note, Brinkman argued that Tesla appeared to have “the most to lose amongst our coverage from the shifting regulatory backdrop.”
These included newly announced US tariffs and the likely loss of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit — later confirmed on September 30.
Addressing Musk’s role at DOGE in the first half of the year, the analyst noted that “the effect on Tesla sales seems nevertheless negative,” regardless of how the political activity played with right- or left-leaning consumers.
Musk exited his Governmental role in May.
Tesla shares more than doubled in the second half of the year — reaching a new record at $498.83 on December 22.
Current Price
In the first two months of the year, Tesla‘s stock had tumbled by $100 — closing below $400 by the end of February.
JP Morgan advised investors on Monday to have “high degree of caution” with the reaffirmed price target implying a downside of about 60% — based on its reaffirmed price target of $145.
Ryan Brinkman reiterated an Underweight rating on the stock, lowering its EPS (earnings per share) estimates for the upcoming earnings report.
According to Brinkman, the firm expects first quarter EPS to decline to $0.30 from $0.43, with a 2026 outlook of $1.80, down from $2.00.
Annual estimates are now below “consensus for $1.95 that once stood as high as $9.77,” Brinkman wrote.
Brinkman advised investors to “approach Tesla shares with a high degree of caution,” as the firm says they “continue to see large -60% downside to our $145 December 2026 price target.”
The analyst said Tesla‘s share price has risen “alongside a material collapse in consensus for all performance metrics through at least the end of the decade.”
According to Brinkman, this disconnect does not inspire confidence in the company’s ability to meet the long-term targets the valuation implies.
The company’s shares fell to $337.24 on Tuesday, their lowest level in seven months.
The stock has been pressured by an escalation of NHTSA’s probe into the company’s FSD software, weaker delivery results, and the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran.
As of press time, Tesla‘s shares were jumping nearly 5% at $362 on Wednesday’s pre-market session — following Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire in Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Delivery Report
The company reported 358,023 vehicles delivered globally and 408,386 units produced in the first quarter of 2026.
Despite the year-over-year increases, delivery numbers were below the Tesla-compiled consensus from 23 sell-side analysts — which estimated the company to report 365,645 vehicles delivered between January and March.
Additionally, the year-over-year comparison coincides with the period in which Tesla did the production transition to the 2025 Model Y.
The results were “fully -74% below the 1,366,000 vehicles Bloomberg consensus once expected for 1Q26 deliveries at the time expectations peaked on June 9, 2022,” Brinkman wrote on Monday.
Tesla is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings results on April 22, after market close.
