Tesla CEO Elon Musk dismissed Alphabet’s Waymo as a serious competitor in the autonomous vehicle race, claiming the robotaxi pioneer “never really had a chance” against Tesla.
Morgan Stanley said earlier this week that Tesla and Waymo are positioned to capture nearly 70% of all autonomous miles by 2032.
However, the two companies lead in different areas.
Waymo currently holds a clear safety advantage, with Morgan Stanley estimating its vehicles travel approximately 360,000 miles per accident.
Tesla‘s early robotaxi data shows roughly 50,000 miles per accident, though the bank noted the sample size remains small and is improving.
The company leads on cost.
Morgan Stanley estimates Tesla‘s robotaxi cost at approximately $0.81 per mile, compared to $1.36 to $1.43 per mile for Waymo‘s current system. The bank expects Waymo to narrow that gap once its next-generation hardware scales in 2027.
Google Scientist Fires Back
Dean had posted that Waymo‘s system is “the most advanced, large-scale application of embodied AI today,” citing the company’s collection of fully autonomous driving data.
When a user asked Dean to compare Waymo‘s technology to Tesla‘s — which also claims to be a leader in embodied AI — Dean pushed back directly.
“I don’t think Tesla has anywhere near the volume of rider-only autonomous miles that Waymo has (96M for Waymo, as of today),” Dean wrote. “The safety data is quite compelling for Waymo, as well.”
Dean cited Waymo‘s published safety statistics showing a 91% reduction in serious injury or worse crashes, 79% fewer airbag deployment crashes, and 80% fewer injury-causing crashes compared to human drivers over the same distance.
“Waymo never really had a chance against Tesla. This will be obvious in hindsight,” Musk wrote on X early Wednesday, responding to a post by Google’s Chief Scientist Jeff Dean praising Waymo’s autonomous driving technology.
The comment marks Musk’s latest salvo in an escalating war of words between the two companies — both of which Wall Street expects to dominate the emerging robotaxi market.
On November 12, when Dean announced Waymo‘s expansion across the San Francisco Bay Area Peninsula — from San Francisco to San Jose with freeway operations — Musk simply replied: “Congrats.”
In August, Musk appeared to acknowledge Waymo‘s regulatory head start, writing that “a pretty good guide is that if Waymo is operating somewhere, then regulations allow robotaxi in that city or state.”
“Tesla will operate there as soon as we reaffirm safety testing in that locale and receive a license to operate,” Musk added at the time.
He has also mocked Waymo‘s business model, writing in June: “They cost ‘Waymo’ money lol” — a reference to the Alphabet unit’s lack of profitability.
Tesla’s Austin Pilot
Tesla launched its paid robotaxi pilot in Austin, Texas, in June with employees as passengers.
The service currently operates with a safety operator in the passenger seat, and vehicles are equipped with two emergency-stop systems — one on the central screen that stops the car in its lane, and another reprogrammed door button that performs a hard brake.
Musk reaffirmed this week that safety operators will be removed from the vehicles before year-end.
With cumulative Full Self-Driving miles exceeding 6 billion globally, Tesla says the Austin robotaxi program is helping expand its training data in increasingly diverse situations as intervention rates continue to fall.
Waymo Questions Rivals’ Transparency
In October, Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana questioned whether some autonomous vehicle developers are doing what is necessary to “earn the right to make the roads safer.”
Speaking at TechCrunch Disrupt, Mawakana was asked which companies she believed were making roads safer through automation and whether that list included Tesla.
“I don’t know… it actually goes back to the transparency point,” she said. “I don’t know who’s on that list because they’re not telling us what’s happening with their fleets.”
She did not name Tesla or any other firm.
