Written by Cláudio Afonso | LinkedIn | X
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered the firm’s 2025 Tesla delivery forecast to 1.8 million vehicles from a previous estimate of 2.3 million, citing demand concerns and market headwinds.
The firm also cut its price target on Tesla to $430 from $515 while maintaining an Outperform rating. The new target implies a 72% upside from Tesla’s Friday closing price of $249.98.
“Lowering TSLA ’25E/‘26E Ests Given N-T Headwinds, PT Down to $430 from $515. We estimate TSLA’s Feb ’25 sales in key regions US, EU and China significantly underperformed the market, with the US down ~2% y/y (mkt. up ~16% y/y), China down ~49% y/y (mkt. up ~85% y/y), and Germany (largest EU EV market) down ~76% y/y (mkt. up ~31% y/y),” Rakesh wrote in a note.
“We believe TSLA’s sales woes are the result of a deterioration in geopolitics, brand perception (US/EU), share loss due to stronger competition (China), and softer-than-expected demand for the Model Y refresh.”
Mizuho revised its 2025 and 2026 Tesla delivery estimates to 1.8 million and 2.3 million, respectively, down from 2.3 million and 2.9 million, but said it still views Tesla as a leader in the EV and autonomous vehicle markets.
Tesla shares have dropped 38% year-to-date. Sales in Europe fell 45% in January and declined 41% in the top nine European markets in February.
Last week, Wells Fargo cut its Tesla price target to $130 from $135, citing a “shocking” drop in European sales and “concerns about political backlash from Elon’s Trump support.”
The firm expects Tesla’s first-quarter deliveries to drop 27% quarter-on-quarter to 360,000 units, before rebounding to 450,000 in the second quarter with the help of price cuts and the launch of a lower-cost “Model 2.5.”
Tesla plans to produce a lower-cost version of its Model Y at its Shanghai factory in an effort to regain market share in China, its second-largest market, Reuters reported last week.
The new model, developed under the codename “E41,” will be smaller and at least 20% cheaper to manufacture than the refreshed Model Y launched in late 2024, according to three people familiar with the matter.
It will be built using existing production lines, with mass production set to begin in 2026 at Tesla’s largest factory by output, two of the sources said.
