Written by Cláudio Afonso | LinkedIn | X
Tesla reported on early Wednesday lower than expected delivery figures for the first quarter of the year raising concerns on demand and the impact of Elon Musk’s involvement in the U.S. administration to the company’s brand image.
Tesla delivered nearly 337,000 vehicles in the first quarter, down 32% from the previous quarter and 13% from a year earlier. Production fell 21% quarter-on-quarter to approximately 363,000 units, down 16% year-over-year.
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney published on Thursday a new research note saying first quarter deliveries came in “well below consensus” and 38,000 units below Goldman’s estimates.
In the first week of March, the firm had cut its 12-month price target for Tesla from $345 to $320, citing weaker-than-expected vehicle deliveries in key regions and demand challenges.
In the new note, the analyst maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock and lowered again the price target to $275.00. Tesla shares closed at $282.76 on Wednesday and are — as of the time of writing — trading at $268 following the U.S. tariffs confirmed by Donald Trump.
“Deliveries of about 337k in 1Q25 came in well below consensus, with more recent consensus estimates in the 350-360K range (per StreetAccounts), and below Visible Alpha at 392k and GSe [Goldman Sachs Estimates] at 375K,” Delaney wrote.
The analyst noted that Goldman Sachs had previously warned Tesla would only be able to deliver 375,000 vehicles for the quarter if it had a particularly strong final month.
“Recall that when we lowered our 1Q estimate on 3/4 to 375K (compared to Visible Alpha consensus at the time of 426K), we wrote that in order for Tesla to reach our forecast it would require a strong month of March driven by the new Model Y ramp, and we do not believe this materialized (driven primarily by downside in Europe and in the US),” he note.
While lowering its estimates and price target on the stock, Goldman Sachs says “key focus items for investors from here will be on when the auto business can return to growth, margins (including the effect of tariffs), and the outlook for AI enabled efforts (including robotaxis/FSD and Optimus)”
Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch also reacted to Tesla’s delivery results and reiterated a Perform rating on stock. The firm named the figures as “disappointing” as the company goes “through a product transition and CEO Elon Musk continues to be a prominent figure in US politics.”
Tesla is planning to start producing a lower-cost version of its best-selling Model Y in Shanghai next year, Reuters reported last month citing three people familiar with the matter.
The U.S. electric vehicle maker is developing the model under a project codenamed “E41” and will build it using existing production lines, according to the report.
Tesla shares closed at $282.76 on Wednesday and are — as of the time of writing — trading at $266 following the U.S. tariffs confirmed by Donald Trump announced on Wednesday afternoon.
