Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard released a new research note on Tesla, previewing the company’s third quarter earnings results, set to be reported after market close on Wednesday.
Since Tesla reported its second quarter’s financial results, shares jumped over 46% as the company launched cheaper versions of its best selling models, expanded the robotaxi service, began rolling out FSD V14 while advancing also on Optimus and Cybercab.
Cantor Fitzgerald’s reaffirmed price target of $355 implies a 20.7% downside, with the firm noting the figure is “pending a full model update.”
The firm kept an Overweight rating on the stock, citing risks such as the US tariffs and the removal of the EV credit, which have led to a slowdown in EV demand, as well as competition from Chinese OEMs.
According to the note — obtained by PriceTarget — the firm “will be focusing on Elon’s commentary, particularly updates on the timing of several upcoming key material potential near-term catalysts.”
These include the rollout of the Robotaxi and launch of the Cybercab next year, FSD adoption in both China and Europe, the timeline for the Optimus humanoid and the ramp up of the new Standard Model Y and Model 3.
The analyst believes the introduction of the Standard trims of Tesla‘s best-selling models had a “significant” timing.
“The new Model 3 and Model Y Standards can help meaningfully stimulate demand by attracting budget-conscious buyers after the recent removal of the $7,500 tax credit,” Sheppard stated.
In the third quarter, Tesla delivered a record 497,099 vehicles, which the analyst noted was “significantly above sell-side consensus of 443,079” units.
Year to date, the company has delivered and produced around 1.2 million vehicles globally, according to Sheppard, who now expects a “weaker” fourth quarter.
Cantor Fitzgerald lowered delivery estimates for 2025 and 2026 to around 1.61 million (from 1.66 million) and 1.86 million units (from 1.98 million), respectively.
The estimated total revenue for both years was also trimmed to $94.4 billion (from $96.4 billion) and $107.8 billion (from $115.5 billion).
Sheppard also mentioned the upcoming Annual Shareholder Meeting, to be held on November 6 — in which Tesla shareholders will primarily vote on the recently proposed pay package for CEO Elon Musk.
The Board of Directors proposed an ambitious compensation plan for Musk, linked to a $7.5 trillion valuation of the company and the successful deployment of both the Robotaxi and the Optimus humanoid.
“For Musk to receive the package, he will have to remain at Tesla for at least 7.5 years, and 10 years to earn the full amount,” Sheppard noted, adding that, “if achieved, Musk could gain up to 12% additional ownership in Tesla.”
The analyst further observed that the chief executive recently disclosed the purchase of over 2.5 million Tesla shares, for the first time in five years.
“In our view, [the purchase] reaffirms his commitment to remaining Tesla‘s CEO for the foreseeable future,” Sheppard stated, saying that Musk aims “to help transform the company from EVs toward robotics and AI.”
On Monday, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives (who has the most bullish price target on the company, at $600) also previewed the upcoming results.
“This quarter, the Street is looking for total revenues of $26 billion with automotive revenue of about $19 billion,” Ives pointed out.
The analyst added that Wedbush believes it “is achievable given the strength across EV deliveries and energy generation.”
Ives continues to believe that the company “could reach a $2 trillion market cap early 2026 in a bull case scenario and $3 trillion by the end of 2026.”
