Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas has become the latest Wall Street analyst to significantly raise Tesla’s price target.
The stock has surged more than 30% in the past month.
The firm’s price target on Tesla was increased by 47.1% from $333 to $490.
Based on Monday’s close at $443.21, the new target implies an upside potential of 10.6%.
Gianarikas’ new price target is now above Tesla‘s all-time high, reached in December 2024, at $488.54.
In a new research note published on Monday, the analyst states that “after several quarters of weakening momentum,” the third quarter will be “a positive break in trend.”
This is mainly due to a boost in demand for electric vehicles ahead of the consumer EV credit deadline on September 30.
Gianarikas noted that “on the EV side, we expect more new models soon — as promised by management.”
“These should help global sales momentum – and potentially help alleviate any post-3Q cliff in the US after EV tax credits go away,” the analyst wrote.
Commenting on the Board’s compensation package for CEO Elon Musk, which is tied to ambitious targets for the company, Gianarikas said that “those targets, if achieved, promise great returns for Tesla shareholders.”
“Given Mr. Musk’s singular business achievements, we see his commitment to the company and bold targets as mostly a positive,” the analyst wrote.
He singled out the target of $400 billion in EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization).
“Yowza. That’s one of Mr. Musk’s operational targets over a 10-year period and compares to ~$15 billion TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) as of 2Q25,” Gianarikas noted.
The analyst warned that “Mr. Musk is who he is, and it is hard to underestimate him. But, a lot needs to go right for him to achieve it.”
For Canaccord, “we are at a phase in Tesla‘s growth cycle where it must go through a period of creative destruction to achieve those goals.”
Gianarikas said that “humanoids aside, the more success Tesla has in robotaxi, the fewer vehicles they will sell.”
The analyst added that the firm thinks “the company knows this, as they laid out a target of only 20 million cumulative vehicle sales as an operational target.”
He stated that Tesla has delivered around 8 million vehicles to date, writing that an additional 12 million units is “not a lot over 10 years,” considering they model 1.67 million units in 2025.
While they “applaud management for its willingness to sacrifice growth in its core segment to vault to the next level,” Canaccord still notes that “it is not risk-free and, in our opinion, will demand substantial robot sales to succeed.”
According to Gianarikas, “the potential for a downgrade was high as we weighed the tailwinds and headwinds to earnings.”
The analyst maintained a Buy rating on the stock, however, citing “some momentum in near-term estimates, potential for more new EVs, a continued expansion of the Robotaxi (…) and the possibility of transformative developments in humanoid robotics.”
