A few hours after Tesla launched its first public Robotaxi rides without safety drivers inside, Barclays analyst Dan Levy warned investors against being overly optimistic about the service, highlighting concerns about its ability to scale.
According to a new research note published on Friday — and obtained by PriceTarget — Levy has increased the price target on Tesla‘s shares from $350 to $360.
However, the new target still implies a downside potential of 20% on the stock, considering Thursday’s closing price of $449.36.
In the latest trading session, Tesla shares rose sharply after the news of unsupervised Robotaxi rides in Austin.
The stock closed up 4%, marking its strongest day from the beginning of 2026.
However, since hitting an all-time high of $498.89 in late December, Tesla shares have dropped nearly 10%.
Barclays Take
Barclays holds a Equalweight rating on the company’s stock.
Dan Levy commented on Thursday’s rollout, noting it marked “the first time since robotaxi’s June’25 launch that riders can take ‘true’ autonomous rides akin to Waymo, Zoox, etc.”
Tesla began testing Robotaxi rides without safety drivers in mid-December and offered the first rides to employees a few days later.
However, the Barclays team remains cautious about the service’s rollout.
“While pulling the safety monitor is a notable accomplishment, we caution against over-optimism in Tesla‘s robotaxi narrative, especially with questions on scaling still outstanding,” Levy wrote.
After the initial news of the unsupervised rides rollout on Thursday, Tesla’s VP of AI Software Ashok Elluswamy clarified on X that “they are “starting with a few unsupervised vehicles mixed in with the broader robotaxi fleet with safety monitors.”
The mix of unsupervised vehicles will increase over time, which according to Levy will happen “presumably as Tesla‘s internal safety metrics are met.”
Additionally, the driverless vehicles are being followed by chase cars.
Musk has noted multiple times that the rollout schedule is affected by these metrics, despite promises of removing safety drivers by the end of 2025 in Austin.
Scaling
Levy pointed out that CEO Elon Musk has failed to meet his earlier promises when it comes to fleet scaling in Austin, which the analyst calls “modest.”
“7 months after the Robotaxi launch in Austin, Tesla has just ~30-50 total vehicles operating in the city, with just ~10 vehicles running concurrently,” the analyst stated.
The figures are “well under Elon’s October commentary for 500 Austin robotaxis ending ’25.”
The analyst also expects driver-out operations to slow the rollout, as “Tesla noted that driver-out operations would be needed prior to scaling Robotaxi given the labor costs of safety monitors.”
In October, Musk said at the All-In Podcast that he expected there to be 500 Robotaxis operating in Austin and 1,000 in the Bay Area by the end of the year.
In late November, Musk replied to user complaints crossing high demand with a limited fleet on X, stating that “the Tesla Robotaxi fleet in Austin should roughly double next month [December].”
Although the Robotaxi service area has expanded several times to cover nearly the entire city of Austin, the company has not officially disclosed how many vehicles are currently operating in the city.
Estimates from the website (Tesla) Robotaxi Tracker suggested that Tesla operated 29 vehicles in Austin and 96 in the Bay Area in November.
As of Friday, the website tracked 61 vehicles in Austin and 146 in San Francisco.
The Bay Area service has safety monitors in the driver’s seat to comply with California’s stricter regulations.
Other Valuations
The Barclays analyst also updated its price target on Detroit automakers this Friday.
Dan Levy raised General Motors‘ price target by $20 — to $100 — while reiterating an Overweight rating on the stock.
The target implies a 23% upside potential, based on Thursday’s close at $81.14.
On the other hand, the firm’s updated price target on Ford, while having been increased to $13, notes that Levy expects the share value to drop by 5.2%.
Ford’s stock closed at $13.71 on Thursday.
The bank has also updated its view on Polestar, after the Geely-backed EV maker underwent a 1-for-30 reserve stock split.
Barclays had a $1.00 price target on the shares, which has now been updated to $15.00 — equivalent to $0.50 on a pre-adjusted split basis.
Considering that $1.00 would have equaled $30 after the stock split, the price target was cut in half.
Dan Levy maintained an Underweight rating on the EV stock.
