Wolfe Research has downgraded its rating on Rivian shares to Underperform on Monday, anticipating a “deteriorated” setup for the EV maker.
In a new research note obtained by PriceTarget, analyst Emmanuel Rosner remains cautious on Rivian due to weaker fundamentals and higher cash burn.
Despite a recent increase in the share value, the firm does not see near-term catalysts for the stock.
Rivian is expected to launch the R2 SUV in the first half of the year, with production taking place at its main Normal plant.
While the model will debut with a higher-trim version, it will also feature an entry-level variant priced at $45,000 — expected to start production at a later stage.
The company is counting on the SUV to enter lower segments and drive demand.
However, Wolfe sees “potential downside risks to near-term R2 demand,” with “volumes likely heavily weighted” to the final quarter of 2026.
Additionally, due to the timing, Rosner does “not expect many Autonomy/AI-related potential catalysts” for the stock, unlike Tesla, where most analysts see autonomy-related projects driving the company’s valuation.
“While the near-term and long-term fundamental setup for Rivian has deteriorated, enthusiasm around Rivian‘s Autonomy platform has driven a sharp rise in the shares,” the analyst said.
Stock Performance
The firm is bearish on the stock with a $16 price target, which implies a downside of 16.8% on the share value — considering Friday’s closing at $19.22.
From December 11 — when Rivian held its ‘Autonomy & AI Day’ event — to December 22, when shares hit a 2025 high of $22.69, the stock surged 37%.
The peak represented more than double the year’s low of $10.36, hit on April 7.
For most of 2025, Rivian shares traded between $11 and $17, before breaking above $18 in the final month of the year.
Higher Losses
According to Rosner, 2026 Wall Street estimates “appear too high,” as Wolfe Research estimates an EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) loss of $2.1 billion versus the consensus of $1.76 billion.
Rivian has reported a net loss of $2.82 billion for the first nine months of 2025, of which $1.17 billion were reported in the third quarter.
The adjusted EBITDA loss registered from July 1 to September 30 was $602 million.
Capital expenditures (capex) totaled nearly $1.25 billion in the first nine months of 2025, including $447 million spent in the third quarter.
In its latest earnings report, Rivian reiterated its 2025 guidance of adjusted EBITDA losses of $2–2.25 billion and total capital expenditures of $1.8–1.9 billion.
Wolfe Research’s analyst noted that free cash flow (FCF) is “likely to step-up” above $4 billion, warning about higher capital and operational expenses and working capital headwinds.
Rivian, which is still battling towards profitability, had a record industry-wide cumulative loss of over $23 billion as of the end of the third quarter.
The company is expected to report fourth-quarter results on February 12.
