UBS downgraded Rivian to Sell from Neutral, warning that the stock’s recent rally on artificial intelligence enthusiasm has created an unfavorable risk-reward setup.
Analyst Joseph Spak raised his price target to $15 from $13 but said the shares face approximately 20% downside from Tuesday’s close of $18.85.
“RIVN stock has been prone to sentiment swings, often driving the stock more than fundamentals,” Spak wrote in a research note.
Rivian shares have jumped nearly 41% over the past three months, driven largely by the company’s first AI and Autonomy Day in mid-December.
The event featured a subscription-based software suite planned for release in the coming months, an AI in-car assistant, and the in-house developed RAP-1 autonomous driving chip.
“The stock is up 15% since Autonomy and AI Day on December 11 versus the S&P 500’s 1% gain as the market assigned more enthusiasm to their AI potential. However, in our view, most of the AI-related news is out,” Spak added.
R2 Expectations
Spak cautioned that expectations for Rivian‘s upcoming R2 midsize SUV may be too high.
“While we like the vehicle, expectations may be too high,” he wrote. “Our 2026 and 2027 sales forecasts are 16% and 19% below consensus, and current stock prices imply 2027 sales approximately 25% above our estimate.”
The analyst sees a 1.6-to-1 downside-to-upside skew at current levels.
Wolfe Research
UBS joins Wolfe Research in turning bearish on the stock this week.
Analyst Emmanuel Rosner downgraded Rivian to Underperform from Peerperform with a $16 price target, citing a “challenging” risk-reward at current levels.
“Free cash flow burn is likely to step up towards $4 billion or more, with higher capex, opex, and working capital headwinds,” Rosner wrote. “While enthusiasm around Rivian’s autonomy platform has driven a sharp rise in the shares, the near-term and long-term fundamental setup have deteriorated.”
Separately, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter last week raised his price target to $20 from $14 while maintaining a Neutral rating.
Delivery Concerns
The downgrades follow a week of mixed news for Rivian.
The company met its twice-lowered 2025 delivery guidance of approximately 170,000 vehicles.
However, Cox Automotive data published Tuesday showed Rivian‘s electric delivery van sales in the US fell 27% in 2025.
Rivian sold 3,021 electric delivery vans in the fourth quarter, bringing full-year sales to fewer than 10,000 units, according to Cox Automotive data released on Tuesday.
Rivian is scheduled to report fourth-quarter financial results on February 12 after the US markets close.
Founder and CEO RJ Scaringe will deliver a keynote address at the Advanced Clean Transportation Expo in Las Vegas from May 4 to 7, organizers announced Wednesday.
