Wall Street firm TD Cowen has upgraded Rivian‘s stock to a Buy rating, just two days before the EV maker’s launch event for its upcoming R2 SUV.
Analyst Itay Michaeli has now raised his price target for Rivian twice in a single month.
He first lifted it from $13 to $17 on February 14 — a jump of roughly 31% — and then added another $3 on Tuesday, bringing the target to $20.
Based on Monday’s closing price of $15.87, that new target suggests the stock could rise about 26%.
Rivian‘s shares have had a volatile year.
They sank to a 2025 low of $12.50 in April, weighed down by tariff-related uncertainty from the Trump Sdministration, before rebounding to a yearly high of $22.45 on December 22.
Rivian‘s stock dropped by nearly $10 of its late-year gains during the first five weeks of the year.
The stock climbed to $17 in mid-February, following better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and the publication of early media reviews of its upcoming R2 model.
However, it has traded around $15 in the past month.
Previous Notes
Back in August, following Rivian‘s second-quarter earnings and amid uncertainty over the future of the EV tax credit in the US, Michaeli struck a cautious tone.
TD Cowen trimmed its price target slightly from $14 to $13, kept its Hold rating, and noted the firm remained “fundamentally constructive” on Rivian.
Michaeli expected the stock to stay “as likely rangebound until closer to year-end,” with investors watching two upcoming catalysts: Rivian‘s Autonomy & AI Day, held on December 11, and the R2 launch event in the first quarter of 2026.
Autonomy
During Rivian’s earnings call on February 12, the analyst questioned the company on early feedback on the Universal Hands-Free feature.
Part of its Autonomy platform, the function rolled out in the company’s last software update of 2025, which also expanded the coverage of its hands-free driving assistance by 24 times across North America.
According to founder and CEO RJ Scaringe, the company intends to unlock the ability for the vehicle to drive point to point “later this year.”
“As we start to move to hands-off and eyes off and then ultimately to Level 4 [autonomy], where the vehicle can operate itself entirely on its own, including driving empty, it really creates a whole new customer experience, and we think it becomes a critical part of the purchase decision,” the CEO stated.
He added that that’s “going to drive significant change in how we think about the business model.”
Rivian initially extended the free trial of Autonomy+ for its Gen 2 customers from “early 2025 to “late 2025,” but as the end of the year approached, the terms were updated.
All new vehicle deliveries included a 60-day trial of Autonomy+ up until February, when customers could opt to subscribe for $49.99 per month or purchase the platform outright for $2,500 — a model first adopted by Tesla.
Earlier this year, the trial was expanded for the third time, running until April.
R2 Launch
Additionally, Michaeli questioned Rivian‘s management in February whether there was “any sense of how we should think about working capital flows this year, particularly as you go through the initial R2 ramp.”
Chief Financial Officer Claire McDonough told the analyst that Rivian “will see working capital be an outflow of cash for us over the course of 2026,” in part driven by “the buildup of our inventory balance associated with the launch of R2.”
Rivian‘s delivery forecast of 62,000–67,000 units — with R1 and EDV sales expected to remain flat — implies that the company anticipates R2 deliveries will account for roughly 20,000–25,000 units in 2026 as production of the more affordable model begins.
On Tuesday’s research note — obtained by PriceTarget — Itay Michaeli said the firm sees “full-scale R2 demand” of between 212,000 and 335,000 units.
JP Morgan, on the other hand, considered it a “lower outlook for 2026 deliveries” than previously expected.
Alongside elevated expenses, it led the firm to maintain its Underweight rating on Rivian.
The New York-based investment firm lowered Rivian‘s price target by a dollar to $9.00, implying a 40.4% downside from the stock’s then-current trading price.
