Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro said Friday that fourth-quarter delivery figures from Tesla and Rivian contained no surprises, with both US electric vehicle manufacturers reporting results largely in line with the firm’s estimates.
In a note titled “TSLA and RIVN Release 4Q25 Deliveries; No Big Surprises,” Gengaro said EV sales in the US were expected to fall following the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit at the end of the third quarter.
Tesla’s Figures
Tesla‘s fourth-quarter deliveries of 418,227 vehicles exceeded Stifel’s forecast of 415,500 but came in 1% below the 422,850 consensus estimate the company published last week.
“As expected, vehicle sales dropped sequentially in 4Q25 following the expiration of the $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit on September 30, 2025 and the demand pull-forward that boosted 3Q25 results,” Gengaro wrote.
The analyst said Q4 deliveries “are about neutral for the shares,” adding that details on margins are expected when Tesla reports fourth-quarter earnings later this month.
Stifel maintained its Buy rating on Tesla and $508 price target. As of press time, the stock was trading 1.6% lower at $442.
“We continue to believe that progress on the company’s FSD and Robotaxi initiatives will be critical drivers of value over the next 12-18 months,” Gengaro wrote.
Earlier Friday, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said Tesla‘s deliveries came in “slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k” units.
Cantor Fitzgerald’s analyst Andres Sheppard said the figures missed both the firm’s estimates and the delivery consensus.
Rivian’s Figures
Gengaro said Rivian‘s fourth-quarter production and delivery figures were “largely in line” with Stifel’s projections. The firm has a Buy rating on Rivian.
Rivian delivered 9,745 electric vehicles in Q4 while producing 10,974 units, meeting its revised annual guidance as the company prepares to launch its more affordable R2 SUV.
For the full year, Rivian produced 42,284 vehicles and delivered 42,247 units — within its lowered guidance range of 41,500 to 43,500 deliveries but down 18% from 51,579 units in 2024.
Wall Street analysts were expecting 42,500 vehicles delivered for the full year, according to Visible Alpha.
Fourth-quarter deliveries fell 31.8% year-over-year from 14,183 units in Q4 2024.
Rivian had warned in early 2025 that it expected the third quarter to be its strongest due to the tax credit expiration.
As of press time, the stock was trading 3.40% lower at $19.04, erasing the gains from earlier in the session.
