Stifel maintained a Buy rating on Rivian on Thursday, calling the company’s new partnership with Uber “a meaningful positive” for both its autonomous driving programme and the commercial expansion of the R2 platform.
Rivian shares surged more than 11% in pre-market trading on Thursday following the announcement but had settled to a 1.0% gain at $15.67 as of press time.
Analyst Stephen Gengaro has also reaffirmed the $20.00 price target, which implies 28.8% upside from Wednesday’s closing price.
Gengaro wrote that Uber‘s commitment to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian — including approximately $300 million already committed — and to purchase up to 50,000 fully autonomous R2 vehicles represents a significant validation of Rivian‘s in-house autonomy stack.
The analyst also highlighted a previously undisclosed revenue stream embedded in the deal.
“Uber is expected to pay Rivian certain software licensing fees in connection with the use of Rivian‘s Level 4 autonomous driving software system,” Gengaro wrote in a research note, referencing analysis from Stifel colleague Mark Kelley, who covers Uber.
The partnership calls for an initial deployment of approximately 10,000 autonomous R2 robotaxis beginning in San Francisco and Miami in early 2028, with an option to purchase up to 40,000 additional units from 2030.
The companies plan to expand to roughly 25 cities across the United States, Canada, and Europe by the end of 2031.
A Consistent Bull
The analyst has maintained a Buy rating throughout and adjusted his price target four times since May 2025.
At the time, Gengaro reiterated Stifel’s $16 target after Rivian‘s first-quarter results, which he described as showing a “positive longer-term view” even as he flagged a neutral near-term outlook.
Two months later, in early July, he raised the target from $16 to $18.
However, in August 2025 — after second-quarter results — Gengaro cut the target back from $18 to $16, citing concerns that regulatory credit sales — which had bolstered Rivian’s first positive quarterly gross profit — might not be sustainable.
He noted at the time that he expected Rivian’s “full-year gross profit to be roughly break-even compared to a modest positive previously.”
Confidence returned with Rivian‘s third-quarter earnings in November.
Gengaro raised the target from $16 to $17, writing that the “underlying long-term story is intact” and highlighting improving gross profit per vehicle — which improved to negative $985 from negative $3,142 the prior quarter — and strong software revenue growth driven by the Volkswagen joint venture, as first reported by EV.
The most significant increase came on February 17, when Gengaro lifted the target from $17 to $20 after Rivian‘s fourth-quarter 2025 results.
He flagged the company’s 2026 delivery guidance of 62,000 to 67,000 units — significantly above Stifel’s prior 52,000-unit forecast — as evidence of a “strong second-half ramp in R2” production.
He wrote that the quarter and outlook were “positive and underscore the company’s strong progress on several fronts,” as EV reported at the time.
Software Revenue in Focus
Gengaro’s emphasis on the software licensing component of the Uber deal echoes a recurring theme in his Rivian coverage.
In his November note, the analyst highlighted software and services revenue as a key driver of the investment thesis, noting that the segment’s growth — fuelled primarily by the $5.8 billion Volkswagen joint venture — was a pillar of the company’s path to profitability.
Rivian reported $447 million in software and services revenue in the fourth quarter of 2025, with approximately 60% attributable to the VW partnership.
CFO Claire McDonough has projected roughly 60% growth in that revenue stream in 2026.
Rivian shares have fallen approximately 20% year to date.
