Stifel reiterated on Wednesday its bullish stance on Rivian, days after the company reported its fourth-quarter financial results while providing new details on the upcoming mid-size SUV.
Analyst Stephen Gengaro raised the firm’s price target on the EV maker to $20 from $17, representing a 17.6% increase.
Based on Tuesday’s closing price of $16.47, the Missouri-based company’s new target implies a 21.4% upside potential on the stock.
Rivian’s stock surged 26.6% last Friday, a day after the company disclosed its financial results for the end of 2025 — which have exceeded Wall Street expectations.
The gains have since been erased in the past two days.
As of press time, Rivian shares were trading nearly 0.3% lower at $16.09 on Thursday’s pre-market session.
Since its 2025 peak of $22.69, on December 22, the stock has lost over 27% of its value.
However, Stifel believes “Rivian‘s 4Q25 print and outlook are positive and underscore the company’s strong progress on several fronts,” as Gengaro wrote in a new research note — first obtained by PriceTarget.
Stifel’s Take
The analyst flagged several key points of the latest earnings update, including improving margins and a “higher-than-anticipated 2026 delivery guidance of 62,000–67,000 units,” in contrast to Stifel’s 52,000-unit forecast before the report.
According to Gengaro, its figures were “driven by a strong second-half ramp in R2,” as the company prepares to begin production and deliveries still ahead of the end of June.
The consensus between analysts is for Rivian to deliver 64,000 units in 2026.
The company’s guidance implies that it expects deliveries of the upcoming R2, which will be launched on March 12, to account for about 20,000–25,000 units by year-end, as sales of the R1 models and the EDV are expected to remain flat.
Additionally, Stifel’s analyst noted that there have been “very positive pre-production reviews on the all-important R2,” as the media embargo was lifted on February 10.
Software and Services
According to Gengaro, “the keys to the Rivian story over the next 12 months include R2 sales, data points that support expectations for Auto margins to rise as R2 ramps, and the continued growth in the high-margin Software & Services segment.”
In November, reacting to third-quarter results, the analyst had also said that Rivian‘s “underlying long-term story” remained intact, highlighting the increase in software revenue, related to the Volkswagen collaboration.
Rivian reported strong Software and Services financials in the fourth quarter, with $447 million of revenue and $179 million of gross profit.
About 60% of that revenue came from the joint venture with VW Group, equivalent to
$273 million.
As the company began winter testing the co-developed Scalable Systems Platform (SSP) on several VW Group models, it has unlocked another $1 billion tranche from the automaker.
The first billion was received during the second quarter of 2025, after Rivian reported its first positive quarterly profit between January and March.
Other Analysts
Late last week, UBS upgraded Rivian back to a Neutral rating just one month after downgrading the stock to Sell.
Analyst Joseph Spak wrote in a new research note — first obtained by PriceTarget — that the firm remains optimistic about the company’s product pipeline, as earlier concerns that the stock’s valuation had gotten “ahead of itself” ease.
Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu also upgraded the stock’s rating to Buy, writing that “Rivian stock is not for the faint of heart, and we certainly don’t expect a straight path forward.”
On the other hand, DA Davidson downgraded Rivian to Underperform on Tuesday, warning that the EV maker’s upbeat tone on its forthcoming R2 model masks significant execution risks.
Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its Neutral rating on the stock, with analyst Andres Sheppard saying the EV maker is “heading in the right direction” but that the firm is awaiting a better entry point following the stock’s sharp rally last week.
