Shares of the US EV maker Rivian extended losses on Thursday morning following the prior session’s 7% decline, which marked one of the steepest single-day drops in recent months.
Two Wall Street analysts downgraded the stock earlier this week, warning that the electric vehicle maker’s rally fueled by artificial intelligence enthusiasm has run its course.
The stock dropped 1.6% to $17.20 as of 10:05 a.m. in New York, extending its decline to 25% over the past 24 sessions since December 22.
Data from the Options markets reflect elevated uncertainty, with 30-day implied volatility at 76 compared with a 52-week range of 46 to 101.
Volatile History
The company went public in late 2021 and reached its all time high of $179.47 on November 16, 2021.
Rivian shares have experienced a turbulent two years, hitting an all-time low of $8.26 in April 2024 before staging a recovery.
Throughout 2025, the stock established a pattern of higher lows before surging in late October on optimism surrounding the company’s AI and Autonomy Day and progress on R2 pre-production.
Wednesday’s decline, while notable, remains well below the double-digit collapses seen during the 2022 growth stock rout and the all time high correction.
The immediate post-IPO period in November 2021 saw back-to-back drops of roughly 13% as the stock retreated from its $172 peak.
In May 2022, shares plunged approximately 21% in a single session as rising interest rates hammered growth stocks.
2025 Sales Performance
While Rivian met its 2025 delivery guidance, the target had been lowered twice throughout the year.
The company initially projected deliveries of 46,000 to 51,000 vehicles at the start of 2025, but cut the forecast to 40,000 to 46,000 units in May citing tariff pressures.
In October, Rivian narrowed guidance again to 41,500 to 43,500 vehicles following the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit.
The company ultimately delivered 42,247 vehicles in 2025, an 18% decline from 51,579 units in 2024.
Fourth-quarter deliveries of 9,745 vehicles fell 32% year over year as the tax credit expiration continued to weigh on demand.
Analyst Downgrades
UBS analyst Joseph Spak downgraded Rivian to Sell from Neutral this week, raising his price target to $15 from $13 while warning the shares face approximately 20% downside from recent levels.
“The stock is up 15% since Autonomy and AI Day on December 11 versus the S&P 500’s 1% gain as the market assigned more enthusiasm to their AI potential,” Spak wrote. “However, in our view, most of the AI-related news is out.”
Rivian‘s December event showcased a subscription-based software suite planned for release in coming months, an AI in-car assistant, and the in-house developed RAP-1 autonomous driving chip.
Wolfe Research analyst Emmanuel Rosner also cut his rating to Underperform from Peerperform with a $16 price target, citing deteriorating fundamentals.
“Free cash flow burn is likely to step up towards $4 billion or more, with higher capex, opex, and working capital headwinds,” Rosner wrote. “While enthusiasm around Rivian‘s autonomy platform has driven a sharp rise in the shares, the near-term and long-term fundamental setup have deteriorated.”
Not all analysts turned bearish.
Piper Sandler’s Alexander Potter last week raised his price target to $20 from $14 while maintaining a Neutral rating, and Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney lifted his target to $18 from $16, also with a Neutral rating.
What’s Ahead
Rivian is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on February 12 after US markets close with investors and analysts eyeing the cash burn rate, gross profit figures linked to the Volkswagen joint venture and the impact of the EV Tax Credit expiration.
The company’s R2 SUV has production and first deliveries slated for the first half of the year.
A prototype spotted near Rivian‘s factory in Normal, Illinois on December 23 matches with the timeline for trial production kick off.
Later this quarter, the company will host the R2 dedicated event, where it will unveil details of the model, including first variants to be produced, a timeline of the LiDAR integration and pricing.
Separately, Rivian last week recalled 19,641 previously serviced R1S and R1T vehicles in the US due to incorrectly assembled rear toe links, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration announced.
