Shares of US electric vehicle maker Rivian surged more than 23% on Wednesday, hitting a 5-week high.
The shift came as the company reported third-quarter revenue of $1.56 billion on Tuesday, surpassing Wall Street’s consensus estimate of $1.49 billion and up from $1.16 billion a year earlier.
The revenue increase was mainly driven by higher deliveries in the July–September period, when Rivian achieved its best quarterly results of the year, delivering 13,201 vehicles.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard commented on the results, stating that the firm remains cautious on Rivian amid expectations of soft demand and modest initial R2 deliveries.
In a new research note published on Wednesday — and obtained by PriceTarget — Sheppard said the firm remains Neutral on Rivian due to lower production and delivery forecasts.
The analyst also mentioned worsening economic conditions in the US, following the loss of the $7,500 EV tax credit and tariff concerns.
Weak Demand
The analyst is “discouraged in the near term” by Rivian‘s full-year delivery guidance of 41,500–43,500 vehicles, which is below 2024 and 2023.
The target, which was reiterated by the company’s management on Tuesday’s earnings report, had been previously lowered in September.
Given the results, Cantor Fitzgerald also updated its delivery forecast — from the prior 45,500 units to a new 42,500-unit guidance.
Rivian has repeatedly stated that it expected the third quarter to have been the “strongest” of the year, resulting in an atypically weaker final quarter, since EV demand surged ahead of the federal EV credit deadline on September 30.
The firm added that it remains “conservative in our initial R2 delivery ramp-up assumptions.”
Despite that, Rivian‘s R2 line, expected in the first half of 2026, is a “material catalyst” on Cantor’s take, “one that should result in higher customer demand, driven by the more competitive price point.”
The entry-level variant of the model is expected to start from $45,000.
Without revealing pricing for the first variant to be produced, Rivian’s founder and CEO RJ Scaringe said on Tuesday it will be a dual-motor, hinting that it will be a mid-level trim of the R2 lineup.
Volkswagen JV
Cantor continues to believe that Rivian benefits from its strategic partnerships with both giant retailer Amazon and German automaker Volkswagen.
Rivian‘s management has disclosed that about $214 million (about half) of the total Software and Services revenue came from the Volkswagen joint venture, which according to Sheppard is “encouraging.”
Rivian and Volkswagen formed a partnership last year, under which Volkswagen agreed to invest $5.8 billion in the EV maker, divided into six tranches, as part of a plan to integrate Rivian‘s advanced software architecture into its vehicles.
After receiving its first two $1 billion tranches in the first two quarters — following its return to profitability — Rivian now expects an additional $1 billion equity infusion in 2026, a $1 billion loan in October 2026, and roughly $460 million in equity either in January 2028 or upon the start of joint vehicle production.
Autonomy
According to Sheppard, the firm is also cautious as it remains uncertain what’s the company’s approach to the autonomy and charging segments, “which have yet to be quantified by management.”
Cantor expects the upcoming AI and Autonomy Day, set for November 12, to provide some light on the topic of autonomy.
On Tuesday, Rivian announced the creation of a second major spinoff after e-mobility Also.
Mind Robotics will focus on “the advancement of industrial AI to reshape how physical world businesses operate” and will use Rivian operations data “as the foundation for a robotics data flywheel.”
Stock Performance
Cantor reiterated its $15 price target on Rivian, which implies a 20% upside potential based on Tuesday’s close at $12.50.
However, with Wednesday’s surge, the price target is below the closing price of $15.42.
Rivian‘s stock reached its highest level of the year on May 20, closing at $17.15 — about a month after dropping to $10.36 on April 4, just two days after US President Donald Trump announced the new import tariffs.
The figures indicate a 65.5% jump in the stock value in just 46 days.
Since May 20, it has lost about 27% of its value. However, in the past three months, the shares have been up 22.7%.
