Rivian shares plunged on Friday morning, extending a sharp reversal that began hours after the EV maker announced a robotaxi partnership with Uber that also revealed the company had quietly abandoned its 2027 profitability goal.
The stock dropped as much as 7% in early Friday trading to $14.97 before recovering slightly to $15.10 at press time, down 6.3% on the day.
Rivian closed Thursday’s session at $16.12, up 3.8%, a fraction of the 11% pre-market surge.
As of press time, the stock has fallen from the $17.40 intraday peak reached minutes after Thursday’s joint announcement — erasing the entirety of the initial rally as investors digest details of the deal.
Profitability Target Dropped
In a Form 8-K filed on March 19, Rivian stated that it “no longer expects to be adjusted EBITDA positive in 2027 due to an expected increase in R&D spend associated with the acceleration of its autonomy roadmap.”
The target had been a cornerstone of the company’s investment case since its first Investor Day on June 27, 2024.
Chief Financial Officer Claire McDonough referenced it as recently as the fourth-quarter earnings call on February 12, telling analysts that reaching 4,000 R2 units per week “would put the company in a strong position to achieve our adjusted EBITDA goals.”
She did not, however, explicitly reaffirm the 2027 date.
The reversal came 35 days later — and was not mentioned by Chief Executive Officer RJ Scaringe during multiple public appearances in the days surrounding the announcement, including interviews with CNBC and Inc. and an on-stage appearance at SXSW in Austin.
Rivian spent $1.7 billion on research and development in 2025, up 6% from the prior year. Cumulative cash burn exceeded $24 billion by year-end.
The company reported a net loss of $3.6 billion in 2025 on 42,247 vehicle deliveries, equating to roughly $85,000 lost per vehicle.
Deal Structure
Under the agreement, Uber’s investment entity SMB Holding Corporation will make an initial $300 million investment — equivalent to approximately 19.55 million Rivian shares.
Four additional tranches, contingent on undisclosed autonomy milestones, could bring the total to $1.25 billion through 2031.
The two companies signed a 10-year Master Framework Agreement that grants Uber platform exclusivity, minimum purchase commitments, and most-favored-nation pricing for the initial tranche.
Uber will also pay software licensing fees for use of Rivian‘s autonomous driving system — the second such licensing arrangement for Rivian after its (up to) $5.8 billion joint venture with Volkswagen Group.
The first phase targets 10,000 fully autonomous R2 robotaxis in San Francisco and Miami in 2028.
An option for 40,000 additional vehicles activates in 2030, with the full deployment spanning 25 cities across the United States, Canada, and Europe by year-end 2031.
Execution Risks
The partnership faces significant execution hurdles.
Rivian has not yet begun production of the R2 SUV, with manufacturing expected to start over the next weeks.
Its Georgia factory remains under construction for future R2 and R3 production.
The Level 4 autonomous driving system required for robotaxi operations does not yet exist — SEC filing language states Rivian “intends to develop” the system, and the company and its suppliers still need to purchase the tooling necessary to manufacture the autonomous-capable variant.
Social media users have also questioned whether the consumer-oriented R2 SUV is suitable for high-utilization robotaxi duty, noting it is not a purpose-built autonomous vehicle in the mold of Zoox’s custom pod or Waymo’s Ohjai fleet.
As reported earlier on Friday by EV, a Tesla Full Self-Driving tester who drove Rivian‘s Universal Hands-Free system for approximately 90 minutes called it “basically adaptive cruise control with lane assist” and said he would not recommend the experience to others.
The current hands-free system, which operates on Gen 2 R1 vehicles, is several capability tiers below the Level 4 system envisioned for the Uber robotaxi fleet.
Wall Street Reaction
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco reiterated an Underweight rating and $12.00 price target.
Despite the bearish stance, Percoco called the deal “a positive development towards building traction with their autonomy platform and as an incremental source of capital as the company bridges its path to profitability.”
He compared the structure to the Volkswagen joint venture, noting both deals secure funding from well-capitalized partners.
Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas raised his price target to $22.00 from $21.00 while maintaining a Buy rating.
Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro reiterated a Buy rating and raised his price target to $20.00, citing the software licensing fees as an additional revenue stream and calling the deal Rivian’s second major software monetization relationship.
Rivian shares are down roughly 24% year-to-date. The market capitalization stood at $18.74 billion at press time
