Rivian shares have fallen more than 30% from their 2025 high, erasing gains driven by the company’s autonomy roadmap unveiling as missed delivery targets and reports of struggles at its Volkswagen AG software joint venture weigh on investor sentiment.
The stock hit $22.73 on December 22, its highest level of the year, capping a four-month rally that began in mid-August.
The run accelerated after the company’s Autonomy and AI Day on December 11, where executives unveiled plans to equip upcoming models with LiDAR sensors to achieve higher levels of autonomous driving, alongside the first in-house developed autonomy processor.
Since then, shares have tumbled to a three-month low of $15.56 on Monday before closing at $15.75, down 1.25% on the day. The stock has lost about 20% year to date.
Missed Deliveries
Fourth-quarter deliveries came in below Wall Street expectations despite Rivian having twice reduced its 2025 guidance during the year.
The company delivered 9,745 vehicles in the fourth quarter, missing analyst estimates of 10,050 units.
For the full year, Rivian delivered 51,579 vehicles, down about 18% from 2024. Analysts had expected 51,900 deliveries, according to Visible Alpha data.
The 2026 delivery target is expected to be announced at the upcoming earnings call, scheduled for February 12 after the US market closes.
VW Partnership Concerns
Reports of difficulties at Rivian‘s software joint venture with Volkswagen have added to pressure on the stock.
The partnership, announced in June 2024 with an investment that can reach up to $5.8 billion, aimed to leverage Rivian‘s software architecture expertise to overhaul digital systems across Volkswagen’s brands including Audi, Porsche, and the main Volkswagen marque.
However, Rivian is delivering less than anticipated, leading to integration difficulties and pushing back several model launches, Manager Magazine reported last week.
Volkswagen CEO Oliver Blume has assembled a task force to address mounting delays, the German outlet said.
“Volkswagen CEO Oliver Blume has made the software alliance with Rivian a central priority. But the Americans are delivering less than expected,” the German portal reported. “Concern is growing particularly at subsidiary Audi about a further setback.”
Central to the challenges is a mismatch between Rivian‘s software, which is tailored for pure battery-electric vehicles, and Volkswagen’s broader portfolio that may continue to include combustion engine and hybrid models longer than originally planned, according to the report.
This has compelled Volkswagen to sustain operations at its in-house software unit Cariad at additional cost running into billions of euros.
R2 Timeline
Rivian said last Friday that it plans to begin production of customer units of its R2 SUV “this spring” at its Normal, Illinois facility, offering its most concrete timeline yet for a model expected to significantly expand the company’s reach into more affordable segments.
The company has not shared exact customer delivery times publicly and has always said deliveries would begin by the first half of 2026.
A local media outlet said on Monday that the first deliveries are expected “by June”.
Rivian‘s founder and CEO RJ Scaringe said last year that the EV maker planned to host a dedicated launch event in 2026 where all the pricing, colors, and details would be disclosed.
Despite the planned starting price of $45,000, the company is expected to begin production with higher variants before starting manufacturing the entry-level trim.
Cramer: Rivian Over Lucid
CNBC’s Jim Cramer last week said Rivian would be a better investment than fellow EV startup Lucid, though he stopped short of endorsing either company.
While saying he does not support investing in Rivian, the CNBC host defended that between both US EV startups — which went public in 2021 — Rivian would be a better choice.
“I mean, look, Rivian [stock] is at $16. If you like that, Rivian is better. I don’t, but that’s the one you want to be in,” Cramer said.
Rivian holds the largest accumulated deficit among pure-play EV makers at over $26 billion, according to its latest quarterly financial report.
The company’s market capitalization stood at approximately $19.3 billion as of Monday’s close.
The next earnings report is scheduled for February 12.
