Rivian reaffirmed on Thursday its full-year delivery guidance of 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles, a target that will require the company to deliver at a significantly higher rate over the remaining nine months of 2026 than it managed in the first quarter.
The Irvine-headquartered EV maker said that it delivered 10,365 vehicles in the first three months of the year while producing 10,236 units.
The reaffirmed guidance, first set in mid-February alongside its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings results, means Rivian needs to deliver between 51,635 and 56,635 vehicles between April 1 and December 31.
That implies an average of approximately 17,200 to 18,900 deliveries per quarter over the remaining three quarters.
Between April 1st and December 31st, Rivian needs roughly 1.7 to 1.8 times the first-quarter rate and well above the 2025 quarterly average of approximately 10,560 vehicles.
The R2 Variable
Meeting the target hinges almost entirely on the ramp-up of the R2, a mid-size SUV priced from $45,000 that represents Rivian‘s first entry into the mass market.
Management said during the fourth-quarter earnings call in February that it expects R1 and commercial van volumes to remain roughly flat compared to 2025 — when Rivian delivered 42,247 vehicles globally.
Assuming that pace holds, the R1 and the electric delivery van would account for approximately 31,500 deliveries over the remaining three quarters, leaving the R2 responsible for roughly 20,000 to 25,000 units from a standing start.
Production of the R2 is set to begin over the coming weeks at Rivian‘s expanded plant in Normal, Illinois, starting on one shift before adding a second later in the year.
Deliveries to employees are expected this month, with external customer handovers starting in late spring. The first units will go to existing R1 owners.
Chief Executive RJ Scaringe told CNBC in February that the R2 is expected to become the “majority” of Rivian‘s volume by the end of 2027.
Chief Financial Officer Claire McDonough added that meaningful R2 volume should not be expected until the second half of 2026, which further concentrates the delivery ramp into the final two quarters of the year.
Wall Street View
In mid-February, Stifel reiterated its Buy rating on Rivian and raised its price target to $20 from $17 — a 17.6% increase — days after the company disclosed fourth-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations.
Analyst Stephen Gengaro flagged improving margins and what he described as ‘higher-than-anticipated 2026 delivery guidance of 62,000 to 67,000 units,” compared to Stifel’s pre-report forecast of 52,000 units.
The Visible Alpha consensus ahead of Thursday’s quarterly release had projected 9,852 vehicles produced and 9,678 delivered — both of which Rivian exceeded.
Stock Under Pressure
Rivian shares were trading 2.2% lower during Thursday’s premarket session at $14.62.
The broader markets pulled back following President Donald Trump’s late Wednesday press conference on the Iran conflict, in which he said the US would ‘hit’ Iran ‘extremely hard’ over the next two to three weeks.
The stock has fallen 24.2% year to date despite gaining 29.6% over the past 12 months.
Rivian shares had surged 26.6% on February 13, the day after the fourth-quarter results were released, but those gains were subsequently erased as the broader market weakened and investors rotated out of growth stocks amid escalating geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty.
