Rivian released its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results on Thursday, reporting revenue and profit margins that exceeded Wall Street expectations.
The EV maker has issued a delivery guidance of between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles for 2026, combining its R1 models, its commercial delivery van, and the upcoming R2 SUV, for which deliveries are expected to begin later this half.
Rivian achieved a total of 42,247 vehicle deliveries in 2025, a 18% decline from the previous year, previously admitted by the company as it revised its annual delivery guidance twice throughout the year.
The newly issued target for 2026 implies an increase of between 46.8% and 58.6% from last year.
First Half
Chief Financial Officer Claire McDonough warned on Thursday that Rivian expects “total deliveries of approximately 9,000 to 11,000 per quarter in the first half of 2026,” in line with the figures reported last year and as it prepares for production of the new model.
The estimates suggest Rivian plans to deliver between 18,000 and 22,000 vehicles in the first half of the year, and that it expects deliveries to double between July and December as it introduces the new model.
“We plan to start production of the R2 launch variant with a single shift and expect to add a second shift towards the end of the year,” McDonough said on the earnings call.
Additionally, “while we believe our gross profit will increase year-over-year, we expect the complexity of a new vehicle launch to negatively impact our automotive gross profit in the second and third quarters,” she said.
It will then become “a benefit to our overall operations in the fourth quarter as we ramp production and deliveries,” the CFO clarified.
Rivian believes 2026 will be “a transition year for the automotive segment’s profitability.”
The company reported an automotive revenue of $839 million from the last quarter, nearly halving from the $1.5 billion recorded a year ago.
Rivian delivered $120 million of consolidated gross profit; however, it registered a $59 million loss in its auto business.
According to its shareholder letter, the revenue drop was due to a decrease in regulatory credits sales, lower deliveries on the expiration of the EV tax credit, and a lower average selling price (ASP) due to a higher mix of EDV deliveries between October and December.
During the earnings conference call, founder and CEO RJ Scaringe said that the company is expecting “some growth in our EDV demand in 2026.”
Flat Deliveries
Questioned by Wolfe Research’s Emmanuel Rosner on the company’s expectations for R1 and EDV sales this year, McDonough said that they estimate full-year basis volumes to be in line with 2025.
While reiterating Rivian‘s target of having first R2 deliveries starting in the first half, she admitted that “like any ramp, the number of deliveries will be rather small, as you think about the Q2 impact of R2 contribution to 9,000 to 11,000 units per quarter that we anticipate in the first half of the year.”
Then, as the company moves into the second half, they expect “the continuation of the ramp of R2, coupled with the ongoing deliveries of our commercial van as well as R1.”
“So, on a full-year basis, you can think about the R1 coupled with the commercial van as being roughly in line with our 2025 total volumes,” she concluded.
The calculations indicate that Rivian is expecting to deliver approximately 19,700 to 24,700 R2 vehicles this year.
R2 Sales
Considering the estimates provided by the management, the R2 could become the company’s best-selling model still in its first year of production, outperforming the R1S SUV.
Last year, according to Cox Automotive data, Rivian sold 24,852 R1S units, 7,416 R1T pickups and 9,830 electric delivery vans.
RJ Scaringe said last year that the bill of materials in R2 was “roughly” half of the R1 models, a “dramatic reduction in the cost structure to build it.”
Rivian is aiming to boost demand by moving into a more affordable segment with the upcoming R2 model.
The entry-level version is expected to start at $45,000, a price point the company announced last summer. More details on pricing and specifications will be revealed on March 12.
Rivian has already confirmed that the vehicle will initially launch with a higher-priced dual-motor version.
In an interview with CNBC on Thursday, the company’s CEO confirmed that “the $45,000 will be coming in shortly thereafter.”
