Rivian‘s founder and CEO RJ Scaringe told shareholders that he has never been more optimistic about the company’s prospects, despite the fact that down more than 92% from the $179.47 it reached six days after going public in November 2021.
“I’ve never been as bullish as I am about Rivian as I am today, which is maybe a little unexpected because our share price has been much higher in the past, but I’m the most bullish I’ve been on the business in this moment,” Scaringe said when asked what he would say directly to Rivian shareholders.
The stock has lost approximately 22% year to date, giving the company a market capitalisation of approximately $19.1 billion — a fraction of the $90 billion valuation it reached shortly after its IPO in November 2021.
Rivian shares surged 29% on their first day of trading, briefly pushing the company’s market cap above both General Motors and Ford.
The stock peaked at $179.47 on November 16, 2021 and has plunged by about 92% since.
The EV maker raised approximately $10.5 billion in private funding from investors including Amazon, Ford, and T. Rowe Price ahead of the listing, according to Forbes.
Institutions Weigh In
As reported by EV last week, institutional investors closed the last quarter of 2025 holding a record number of Rivian shares.
The two largest asset managers in the world — Vanguard and BlackRock — round out the top four, though both reduced their positions in the fourth quarter.
Vanguard trimmed its stake by 264,234 shares while BlackRock cut 799,602 shares from its holding.
The Case Scaringe Is Making
Scaringe anchored his optimism on three pillars: the upcoming R2 platform and its derivative models, Rivian‘s software licensing business, and its autonomous driving programme.
On the product side, Scaringe pointed to the R2 — a smaller, more affordable SUV that represents Rivian’s entry into higher-volume segments — and what he described as “sibling products or variants” that will be built on the same platform.
Rivian announced the new platform in March 2024 while revealing the first images of the R2, R3 and the R3X.
The R2 is designed to compete in a substantially larger market than the R1S and R1T, which average selling price stands at about $90,000.
On software, Scaringe said the value of Rivian‘s technology platform was not recognised by the market until the company signed a large software licensing deal with Volkswagen at the end of 2024.
That partnership, which created a joint venture valued at up to $5.8 billion, validated what Scaringe called “an independent value centre within Rivian” — the idea that the company’s software stack has commercial worth beyond its own vehicles.
On autonomy, Scaringe said Rivian has spent years building a vertically integrated stack that includes in-house silicon and in-house perception, and has now accumulated a large enough fleet to create what he described as a “data flywheel.”
At the company’s Autonomy Day event last December, Rivian demonstrated a point-to-point, full navigation self-driving system that Scaringe said will be released to all second-generation vehicles later this year.
He described that as “just the second of a whole series of steps” progressing toward hands-off, eyes-off driving and ultimately personal Level 4 autonomy.
“We’re so bullish on what’s coming with autonomy that we think the combination of our software capabilities, what we’re building in autonomy coupled with the products just positions really well,” he said.
Conviction X Market Reality
Scaringe acknowledged the tension between his optimism and the company’s share price performance, framing the cumulative cash burn as the necessary cost of building the technology platform, product pipeline, and manufacturing capability.
“The challenge is recognising that all these factors come together and all the investment that we built in, the cumulative cash burn that we’ve had, has created in aggregate this really robust capability set within the company, a really robust technology platform and an incredible set of products that are coming,” he said.
