Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco maintained his Underweight rating and $12 price target on Rivian on Friday, warning that demand could weaken through most of 2026.
“We maintain our cautious view on demand in 2026 following the expiration of the EV tax credit and the evolving tech hardware roadmap,” the analyst wrote in a new research note.
Percoco added that the introduction of LiDAR later this year to allow the EV maker to reach advanced levels of autonomy “may yield a demand air-pocket for most of 2026 as customers wait for RIVN’s latest gen tech platform.”
The EV maker delivered 9,745 vehicles in Q4, slightly ahead of Morgan Stanley’s estimate of 9,525 units but below the consensus of 10,100.
“RIVN delivered 9,745 vehicles in 4Q25 (-31% y/y) vs MSe at 9,525 and cons at 10,100,” Percoco wrote.
“For the full year, Rivian produced and delivered, 42,284 (-15% Y/Y) and 42,247 vehicles (-18% Y/Y), respectively, which is in line with its guidance,” he added.
Wall Street analysts had expected around 42,500 deliveries for the year, according to Visible Alpha — implying a roughly 17.6% decline from 2024.
Incentives to Boost Demand
Rivian is currently offering several incentives to boost demand following the expiration of the federal EV tax credit.
The company is offering a $6,500 lease bonus on the 2025 R1 Dual Max Performance and 2025 R1 Dual Large Performance for customers who receive lease approval by January 6 and take delivery by January 31.
A $5,000 lease bonus is available on other select 2025 and 2026 R1 vehicles under the same terms.
Eligible models include the 2025 R1 Tri, 2025 R1 Dual Standard, 2026 R1 Tri, 2026 R1 Dual Large Performance, and 2026 R1 Dual Standard.
The company founded and led by RJ Scaringe is also offering 0.99% APR financing for 60 months on new 2025 and 2026 R1 Tri vehicles for well-qualified buyers. The offer requires a qualifying down payment, approved financing by January 6, and delivery by January 31.
Earnings Preview
Percoco said attention now shifts to Rivian‘s upcoming fourth-quarter results and 2026 outlook.
“All eyes are now on 4Q25 earnings (reporting 2/12/26) and 2026 guidance, particularly the ramp of R2,” the analyst wrote.
Rivian said it will release fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results on February 12 after market close. The company will host an audio webcast at 5:00 p.m. ET the same day.
Rivian shares spiked immediately after the delivery results were released but pared gains and closed 1.5% lower on Friday at $19.42.
Rivian produced 10,974 vehicles at its manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois, and delivered 9,745 units in Q4. That compares with 12,727 produced and 14,183 delivered in Q4 2024.
For the full year, Rivian produced 42,284 vehicles and delivered 42,247 units.
The figures met the company’s revised guidance range of 41,500 to 43,500 deliveries but marked an 18% decline from 51,579 units in 2024.
Contrasting View
Earlier Friday, Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas reiterated his Buy rating and $21 price target on Rivian.
Gianarikas said that Rivian‘s path since going public in 2021 has “been far from smooth.” However, he sees a potential shift ahead with the R2 launch planned for the first half of 2026.
