Rivian shares jumped by more than 25% on the first hour of Friday’s trading session, a day after the company posted earnings results above Wall Street expectations.
The company ended 2025 with $6.6 billion in liquidity, after posting its first annual gross profit at $144 million.
The annual net loss stood at $3.6 billion.
A few hours after the results were released, several analysts revised their forecasts on the EV maker, including Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu, who upgraded the stock’s rating to Buy.
In a new research note — first obtained by PriceTarget — the analyst wrote that “Rivian stock is not for the faint of the heart, and we certainly don’t expect a straight path forward.”
However, Yu said they see “early signs that the company’s prospects are inflecting” and “overall, we think the risk-reward is attractive.”
The German bank upped its price target on the shares to $23 from $16, representing a 43.8% increase.
Based on the previous closing at $14.00 on Thursday, the new price target implies an upside potential of 64.3%.
On Thursday’s trading session, shares fell 5% during the regular time before rebounding sharply, climbing more than 15% in after-hours trading.
The momentum continued into Friday, with the stock rising about 28% in the first trading hours.
Rivian shares jumped as high as $17.94 as the market opened — a gain of roughly 28% — before pulling back to around $17.00.
As of press time, the stock was trading about 20% higher at $16.80.
Rivian shares hit a 2025 high of $22.69 on December 22, following autonomy-related updates.
The stock then lost 40% of its value, hitting a low of $13.57 per share exactly a week ago.
The EV maker’s shares have begun recovering as the first reviews of the upcoming R2 SUV were published.
The company further revealed that the pricing details and specs of the model will be announced on March 12.
Earlier on Friday, UBS analyst Joseph Spak upgraded Rivian’s stock rating after having downgraded it a month ago, as earlier concerns that the valuation had gotten “ahead of itself” have faded.
Volume Expectations
According to Deutsche Bank, Rivian‘s 2026 outlook appears “de-risked” in the near-term.
Rivian expects to deliver between 62,000 and 67,000 vehicles this year, of which 18,000–22,000 are estimated for the first half. Volumes will increase exponentially as R2 deliveries begin.
Analyst Edison Yu highlighted that “volume expectations are reasonable and vehicle cost continues to improve,” as the upcoming vehicle launch approaches.
Considering Rivian expects deliveries of its R1 models and its EDV to remain “in line” with 2025, according to CFO Claire McDonough, the company is estimating the mid-size SUV to account for about 20,000–25,000 units.
Higher volumes are also expected to be “further supported by competitors retreating or slow-walking their EV transitions,” Yu wrote, along with “Tesla discontinuing its higher-end models.”
Late last month, Tesla revealed it will stop offering its flagship Model S and Model X, as it transitions further into autonomy.
A month before, Ford had announced it was halting production of its fully electric F-150 Lightning pick-up, leaving a gap in the segment — which could be tapped by Rivian with its R1T truck.
Autonomy Stack
Thinking long-term, Edison Yu said Rivian could take advantage of its autonomy stack against its competitors.
Among the several autonomy-related announcements made last December, the company is building a custom AI chip, a foundation “Large Driving Model,” and including LiDAR in its vehicles, as it aims towards wider hands-free deployment.
The latest update to its Autonomy+ platform, which rolled out ahead of the year-end, expanded the coverage of its advanced-assisted driving software across North America by 24 times.
“We think efforts for a vertically integrated autonomy stack (…) can help create a moat,” the analyst wrote, as the company relies less on external players, “especially if VW deepens its support.”
Balance Sheet
Additionally, Yu noted that investments from both Volkswagen Group and the Department of Energy might help offset the company’s high cash burn rate.
“While cash burn is still high, the balance sheet is supported by another $2 billion from VW this year and the DOE loan, which provides a mid-term capital safety net for the Georgia expansion,” the analyst wrote.
Rivian‘s CFO said during Thursday’s earnings call that $1 billion of the VW investment will be “subject to the successful completion of winter testing,” while the other billion will be “nonrecourse debt,” paid in October.
Last year, after achieving its first profitable quarter, Rivian received the first tranche of VW Group’s investment, which led it to become one of Rivian’s largest backers.
Additionally, the company was granted a $6.6 billion loan from the DOE last year, to support construction of its second plant in Georgia.
However, they are planning to tap it only after the plant is fully built.
“It’d be prior to starting production in 2028 that we’d be drawing down the loan,” CFO Claire McDonough stated last year.
Construction of the Georgia plant began last year — three years later than originally planned.
This facility will support production of the R2 SUV, which will start manufacturing in Normal rather than at the new plant, as previously scheduled. The upcoming R3 and R3X models will also be produced at the Georgia facility.
